Melbourne Renegades v Sydney Thunder Big Bash Tips: Can Thunder recover?

• Thunder bowled out for 15 v Strikers

• Marvel Stadium great for batters

• Hales stands out at 11/4

Melbourne Renegades v Sydney Thunder
Sunday 18 December, 08.15
TV: Live on BT Sports

Team news

There is no mention of Shaun Marsh in the latest squad list from the Renegades. Despite success over Brisbane Heat in their opener, they are likely to need his experience. The batting looks frail.

Nic Maddinson produced a good knock to get them to 166 and then their impressive bowling attack got to work. Akeal Hosein and Mujeeb are going to be a nightmare for batters until mid January.

Probable XI: Harper, Maddison, Fraser-McGurk, Finch, Wells, Russell, Akeal, Sutherland, ROgers, Mujeeb, K Richardson

Thunder produced a disgraceful performance when being bowled out for a histroic low of just 15 (FIFTEEN) against Adelaide Strikers. It is hard to see how they recover from such ignominy in this tournament.

There will surely be changes. Ben Cutting is likely to come in for Oliver Davies and Matthew Gilkes' position could be under threat from Sam Whiteman. The latter move may open up the possibility of Daniel Sams opening. Or Jason Sangha could return to that role

Possible XI: Hales, J Sangha, Rossouw, J Sangha, Ross, Sams, Cutting, Whiteman, Green, Sandhu, Doggett, Farooqi

Pitch Report

The Marvel Stadium has been reliable for batting. More than 170 has been busted in the first innings ten times in the last 15. In that regard, Thunder have a great chance to put their Strikers misery behind them. But do we trust them? Instead we might play over the pars line only if Renegades bat first in the late 160s. More than 170 might be available at around 2.206/5. Sportsbook go 6/4 and 4/1 that both teams score 160 and 170 respectively. The latter has happened four times in the study period.

How to play

Not surprisingly Renegades are 1.834/5. There has been a reaction to Thunder's humiliation. Had they just lost to Strikers in 'normal' circumstances, we would reckon that they were value here at an expected 2.206/5. They have talented individuals and very good balance. But we have to give them time to attempt to recover.

Tops value

Sangha and Sams are 4/1 and 11/1 respectively for top Thunder bat if we are right about the batting order change. Alex Hales has the sort of mentality which means he isn't bothered by what happened at the Showground so a boosted 11/4 is not a mug bet.

For Renegades, we're looking at middle-order power in the shape of the excellent Jono Wells and Andre Russell. They are 7s and 14s respectively and in-play should be available at double the price.

Akeal's spin was terrific against Heat and is 16/5 for top Renegades bowler with Sportsbook.