Melbourne Renegades v Hobart Hurricanes Big Bash Tips: Hosts are underrated

• Dockland pitch has been good for batting

• Hurricanes awful with ball

• Batter Owen no 90/1 chance

Melbourne Renegades v Hobart Hurricanes
Saturday 7 January, 07:05
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Team news

Renegades are likely to field Akeal Hosein and Mujeeb ur Rahman for the last time before the start of the UAE T20 League on 13 January.

The pair will leave a huge hole. They have taken 20 wickets between them and both have an economy rate of under 6.5 an over. But until then they provide a massive edge against a Hobart team without a spinner worthy of the name.

Probable XI: Guptill, Harper, S Marsh, Finch, Wells, Harvey, Sutherland, Akeal, Rogers, K Richardson, Mujeeb

Hurricanes were humiliated by Adelaide last time out, as Strikers chased a record total for the Bash. Failure to defend 230 surely means this lot can't win the title.

They appear to be a classic can bat, can't bowl outfit after spending big on batting power. Zak Crawley replacing Shadab Khan, an all-rounder, is a prime example. Trying to squeeze four overs from Tim David and Mitch Owen, batters in all honesty, is a disaster.

Probable XI: Jewell, McDermott, Wade, Crawley, David, Owen, Asif, Faheem, Dooley, Meredith, Ellis

Pitch report

The Marvel Stadium has been reliable for batting. More than 170 has been busted in the first innings 11 times in the last 17. Renegades could only manage 155 against Perth last time out. Hobart's batting is the more trustworthy for an overs play on the par line which could be set in the mid 160s. Around 2.1011/10 should be around for more than 170.

How to play

This is a bowling versus a batting clash. And in such instances we almost always side with the bowling unit, especially if they are odds-against. Renegades, then, rate a wager at 2.245/4. We'll include two caveats. Akeal and Mujeeb must be in the starting line-up and Renegades need to defend.

It's a crazy, short price on the Hurricanes who continue to be prohibitively short despite winning only three games all season.

Tops value

Owen is not good enough to be batting ahead of Tim David and Asif Ali at No 5 - as he did against Strikers. He's probably not good enough to win the top HH bat market. But no batsman-by-trade should be 90/1 with Sportsbook. Crawley is 9/2. Shaun Marsh has little to beat at 10/3 for the hosts.