Melbourne Renegades v Brisbane Heat Big Bash Tips: Heat may light a fire

• Geelong pitch could be unders play

• Renegades overrated

• Harper a 5/1 fancy for top bat

Melbourne Renegades v Brisbane Heat
Wednesday 21 September, 08:15
TV: Live on BT Sports

Team news

With two wins from two Renegades are in unfamiliar territory. They should be unchanged and that means there is still no return for Shaun Marsh.

Marsh is recovering from a calf injury and he could be available next week. Andre Russell plays his penultimate game before departure.

Probable XI: Harper, Maddinson, Fraser-McGurk, Finch, Wells, Russell, Hosein, Sutherland, Rogers, Richardson, Mujeeb

Heat are struggling to prove those who reckoned they were destined for a bottom-two finish wrong. They were well beaten by Renegades in their only match so far.

They are at least boosted by the return of key players Michael Neser and batter Matt Renshaw. Neser was with the Australia Test squad while Renshaw missed the Renegades match to be at the birth of his child.

Possible XI: Bryant, Renshaw, Munro, Billings, Peirson, Whiteley, Bazley, Neser, Kuhnemann, Steketee, Swepson

Pitch report

In six World T20 matches at Geelong's Simmonds Stadoum there were only two scores of 160 or more in first dig. In the four Bash matches in the last two years at the venue, there were two scores of 160 or more.

There's a trend for an unders play, then on the par line if it is in the mid 160s. Bet here. It doesn't feel like a risk because neither of these two batting units are screaming runs.

How to play

What a difference a year makes. The idea of Renegades being [1.64] to beat anybody but themselves would have been a run to the bathroom moment. But here we are. And we cannot have it.

Heat are a poor side but we're yet to be convinced that Renegades are anything close to being good enough to warrant being so short. With a slight toss bias for the team batting first, we're looking to trade Heat to 1.910/11 favourite status from 2.427/5 with a fast start. In that regard we're relying on Colin Munro and Sam Billings who are the best two batters on show.

Tops value

We have Sam Harper down to open for Renegades so the 5/1 with Sportsbook that he top bats is value. For Heat we like the hard-hitting Ross Whiteley at 14/1. Munro and Billings are 11/3 and 7/2 respectively for Heat.

Akeal Hosein has had a terrific start to his Renegades career and he took three wickets against Heat in the earlier clash. He is 13/5 for most Renegades wickets.