Islamabad United v Karachi Kings
Friday 3 March, 14:00
TV: Live on BT Sports
Team news
Alex Hales has arrived to boost United at a key time. Just when other franchises are losing big men he could be make all the difference. Rassie van der Dussen may hold on to his spot. Or Rahmanullah Gurbaz or Paul Stirling will open with Hales with Colin Munro at No 3.
Possible XI: Munro, Hales, van der Dussen, Shadab, Azam Khan, Asif Ali, Faheem, T Curran, Hasan, Zeeshan, Abrar Ahmed
Kings produced a stinker last time out against Zalmi. They had the game in their pocket when they reduced their opponents to two for three. Somehow they still conceded 197. It might be time to try nech strength. Lewis Gregory or James Fuller for Ben Cutting perhaps.
Possible XI: Wade, Rossington, Tahir, Irfan Khan, Shoaib Malik, Imad, Gregory, Aamer Yamin, Shamsi, Akif, Amir
Pitch report
Of the last 33 matches, there have been 17 scores in first-innings of more than 170. There is a more recent toss bias, too. Only six of the last 23 have been won by the chaser. Zalmi's 197 in the first game at the venue this tournament should be matched by United on a par line in the high 170s.
How to play
Islamabad are 1.654/6 with Kings 2.486/4. Those odds are about right. We don't even trust Kings with the toss bias in their favour.
Instead we'll hope for United to drift slightly to the 1.705/7 region and then bet but if they bat first they're likely only to shorten.
Tops value
Sportsbook have not priced Hales but we expect him to be 11/4 when the teams are announced. Adam Rossington, who should open, is boosted to 7/2 for top Kings bat.