Ireland v New Zealand T20 World Cup Tips: Mitchell worth a follow at 11/1

• Adelaide surface good for batters
• Mitchell a win rate bet
• Kiwis need to drop skipper

Ireland v New Zealand
Friday 3 November, 04:00
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Team news

Barring mathematical and meteorological miracles, Ireland's semi-final chances are over. Despite beating England, in truth, their batting has not been up to scratch.

Still, Lorcan Tucker produced an innings to tell the grandkids about. George Dockrell is a danger in the middle-order and in the last 12 months few have a better strike rate.

Probable XI: Stirling, Balbirnie, Tucker, Tetcor, Campher, Dockrell, Delany, Adair, Hand, McCarthy, Little

New Zealand faded badly in a gettable chase against England last time out. A win gurantees a semi-final berth but they would do well to ask difficult questions.

Chiefly whether Kane Williamson should be in this team. A 40-ball 40 against England was a disaster and put his team firmly in the mire. They could drop him and play Mark Chapman or Martin Guptill.

Possible XI: Allen, Conway, Phillips, Mitchell, Chapman, Neesham, Santner, Sodhi, Southee, Ferguson, Boult

Pitch report

Scores of 117 and 184 from the two first digs at Adelaide may be confusing but the second score (by India) is in line with historic scorecards. It's a good batting wicket. More than 170 batting first should be a minimum for the Kiwis and the par line may well be set as such.

How to play

New Zealand are 1.141/7 and Ireland 7.6013/2. There are recent head-to-heads to go on from July when the Kiwis didn't put a foot wrong in a 3-0 sweep.

So Ireland need some help. The toss bias might provide that. Fifteen of the last 22 have been won by the side batting first.

On a flat one, they might be able to repeat the 174 they managed at Belfast in the summer. There's room in their price for a trade therefore.

Tops value

There's a win rate bet to be had on Daryl Mitchell at 11/1 for top Kiwi bat. Sportsbook go 11/1 and we have him closer to 13/2 on two-year form. Mitchell had a couple of nice cameos in the previous three meetings.

Mark Adair took a liking to the Kiwi batters and is noted at 25/1. Dockrell's strike rate means the 11/1 is also of interest.