India v Sri Lanka Third T20 Tips: Rajapaksa ready to rumble at 9/2

• Rajkot pitch offers no runs trends

• Toss bias in play

• Series level at 1-1

• Rajapaksa worth a nibble for top bat

India v Sri Lanka
Saturday 7 January 13:30
TV: Streamed on ESPN

Team news

India fell 16 short of a chase of 206 in game two. They would have won had Arshdeep Singh not bowled five no-balls and Shivam Mavi two.

As it was, it was a remarkable effort to get so close. From 57 for five they were facing a thrashing. Suryakumar Yadav and Axar Patel's hitting got them back in the game.

Sanju Samson is out with a knee injury so Rahul Tripathi was promoted to No 3. Mukesh Kumar might replace Arshdeep or Mavi. Skip Hardik Pandya might bowl at the death instead of Arshdeep after he criticised his team-mate.

Possible XI: Ishan, Gill, Tripathi, Yadav, Hardik, Hooda, Axar, Thakur, Arshdeep, Chahal, Mukesh

On a flat wicket in Pune Sri Lanka were able to cut loose. Given their timid efforts in the World Cup, one suspects they are a side who need that extra confidence from conditions.

Dasun Shanaka marked himself down as a power hitter of note. How hasn't he got an IPL gig? Kusal Mendis also continued his good form.

Probable XI: Nissanka, Kusal, Rajapaksa, Asalanka, Dhananjaya, Shanaka, Hasaranga, Karunaratne, Theekshana, Rajitha, Madushanka

Pitch report

The Saurashtra Cricket Association Stadium hosted 14 Syed Musthaq Trophy matches in October. It was a mixed bag. Five first-innings produced scores of 170 or more and four of under 136. Nine of those matches were won by the chaser which is a hefty bias.

In two isolated T20s in 2022 and 2019, India posted 169 against South Africa and Bangladesh 153. The hosts won both.

There's not a big enough chunk of evidence to be playing overs on the par line and the shrewd move will be to go short if there's an overreaction. A high 160s line for example.

How to play

India are 1.444/9 with Sri Lanka 3.1511/5. It's a big gap which, of course, would appear to be unjustified given the result in game one. Sri Lanka had a decent crack in game one as well.

A trade on the visitors is a very fair shout, then, particularly if they were able to use the toss bias to their advantage. The India top order, Yadav aside, is not one which Sri Lanka will fear.

It should not be forgotten that this is very much a reserve India team. So far, they have looked like a team still finding their way.

Tops value

Rajapaksa's promotion to No 3 may be temporary but it's enough to reckon Sportsbook's 9/2 about him top scoring for Sri Lanka is worth a nibble. Shanaka is 5/1 to win for the third game in a row.

Yadav is 3/1 favourite for top India. That's slightly disappointing considering he batted a place lower down at No 4 in Pune. Deepak Hooda is always of interest at 11s because he could bat anywhere in the top six.

Arshdeep is 7/2 for top India bowler. Ordinarily that'd be a big bet at the price but, with death duty in doubt and even not bowling his full quota a possibility, we probably have to reluctantly swerve.