India v Sri Lanka Third ODI Tips: Tricky surface may reduce gulf

• Low-score history at venue

• India may make changes

• Sri Lanka can trade

India v Sri Lanka
Sunday 15 January, 08:00
TV: Streamed on ESPN

Team news

With an unassailable 2-0 lead in the three-match series India have an opprtunity to test bench strength in their home World Cup year.

That means Virat Kohli might be rested for Suryakumar Yadav. Ishan Kishan may get a chance at the expense of Shubmann Gill. There's angst that Hardik Pandya doesn't have any cover but that's largely because he's so darn good. Washington Sundar could play instead.

Possible XI: Rohit, Ishan, Yadav, Shreyas, Rahul, Sundar, Axar, Kuldeep, Shami, Siraj, Arshdeep

Sri Lanka have fought gamely. But the gulf in class has just been too great. There's little they can do to the make-up of their XI given the resources available.

Pathnum Nissanka and Dilshan Madushanka, a top batter and best bowler respectively, missed out last time with niggles. It's unlikely they will come back for this one.

Probable XI: Avishka, Nuwandi, Kusal, Dhananjaya, Asalanka, Shanaka, Hasaranga, Karunaratne, Wellalage, Rajitha, Lahiru

Pitch report

The Greenfields International Stadium is a curious venue. There has been only one ODI played there. West Indies were rolled for 108 in 2018. In a T20 South Africa made only 106. And in three of the last four domestic List A matches there have been first-dig scores of: 157, 149 and 122 all out. In short: don't go overs on runs.

Seam and swing has been to the fore so going low on Sri Lanka batting first on the extremes could pay off for low risk. Sportsbook's no fifty in the first-innin gs also has appeal at 11/2.

How to play

If Sri lanka were to bowl first, the histroic scorecards suggest a cheeky tarde may be in the offing. But we're taking a risk reckoning that conditions will be alike.

A flurry of wickets for them could see 1.5 points lopped off their 4.003/1 starting price and then it's a simple green from there.

Tops value

Our tops picks also come with a risk on the surface. It might be worth playing those lower-order players. Dasun Shanaka is probably a bit short these days at 11/2 for where he bats so Chamika Karunaratne has appeal at 40/1.

For India Mohammad Shami and Arshdeep Singh have potential on the man of the match markets at 12/1 and 20/1.