India v Sri Lanka Second T20 Tips: Get set for runfest in Pune

• MCA Stadium a road bating first

• Yadav and Samson to go well

• Sri Lanka done for chasing

India v Sri Lanka
Thursday 5 January, 13:30
TV: Live on ESPN

Team news

India are 1-0 up but one would be hard pressed to be impressed. They produced a performance which was very much in keeping with the theory that there were players who were unsure of their roles in game one.

Shubmann Gill had a debut to forget as opener, Suryakumar Yadav disappointed in his new No 3 slot and Sanju Samson didn't take his chance at No 4. Still, other players stepped up.

Deepak Hooda and Axar Patel's late hitting got them to a challenging 162. And debutant Shivam Mavi won them the game with great death bowling and four wickets.

Probable XI: Ishan, Gill, Yadav, Samson, hardik, Hooda, Axar, Harshal, Mavi, Umran, Chahal

Sri Lanka will reckon they should have won at the Wankhede. And they would be right. They had the game in their locker with a quarter of each innings to go.

We don't expect any changes even if Chamika Karunaratne should get a dressing down for missing out on half volleys in the final over.

Probable XI: Nissanka, Kusal, Dhananjaya, Asalanka, Rajapaksa, Shanaka, Hasaranga, Karunaratne, Theekshana, Rajitha, Madushanka

Pitch report

In 14 men's T20 matches since 2020 (13 in 2022), there have been eight first-innings scores of 170 or more. The MCA Stadium pitch really should be full of runs again. Going over the runs par line in the late 160s could well be the shrewdest call. India may be priced at overs 169.5.

You can also play the runs market. Don't get suckered in to Sportsbook's 13/10 that both notch 170 here. It's happened just twice in our study period.

If India bat first we will certainly consider 200 or more at big prices. There have been three scores of 200 or more. One of those was by India against Sri Lanka in 2020.

How to play

One suspects Sri Lanka's best chance of a win in the series has gone. They did catch India cold in Mumbai but did't have the heart to get over the line. India are 1.384/11 here.

That's not to say Sri Lanka are not worthy of a trade. If they bat first at Pune they should be capable of notching 170 or more, which means that you'll get a nice chunk lopped off the 3.309/4. But they have to bat first. India will surely only shorten even further if they bat first.

Tops value

We're very happy to see Yadav batting at No 3 and a more than enamoured with the 3/1 available about top India bat. One has to keep faith with the best T20 batter in the world to come good.

Yadav has three fifites in 10 at the ground. Hooda is 11/1 for a repeat win. For Sri Lanka, Shanaka copped so it could be time to look for Rajapaksa at 11/2.

On a potentially flat track the match gong is lkely to be won by a batter. Yadav, then, has appeal at 7s. We should also mention Samson. he has a ton at the venue. He gets a quote of 14s.