India v South Africa Third ODI Tips: Ominous India find their range

India v South Africa
Tuesday 11 October, 09:00

Team news

India levelled the series with a dominant batting display in a tricky chase of 279 at Ranchi on Sunday. Ishan Kishan and Shreyas Iyer produced superb knocks.

For Kishan it was an important return to form. His 93 from 84 served a reminder of his brilliant ability and class. He really should have made India's T20 squad. Shreyas Iyer's century won man of the match.

Mohammad Siraj took three wickets to push claims that he could be included as a standby player for the World Cup. We're not wholly convinced by their balance, though, with either Washington Sundar or Shardul Thakur at No 6.

Probable XI: Dhawan, Gill, Gaikwad, Ishan, Iyer, Sundar, Thakur, Shahbaz, Kuldeep, Siraj, Avesh

Temba Bavuma missed game two will ilness and Reeza Hendricks seized his opportunity at No 3 with an impressive 74 from 76. Surely Bavuma doesn't come back in this series or in the T20 World Cup now?

Tabraiz Shamsi was also unwell. His place went to Bjorn Fortuin. Anrich Nortje got a game. That means Kagiso Rabada is likely to sit out the final match with Lungi Ngidi returning as South Africa rotate their pacemen.

Probable XI: De Kock, Malan, Hendricks, Markam, Miller, Klaasen, Parnell, Maharaj, Fortuin, Nortje, Ngidi

Pitch report

There's nothing worse than trying to uncover a bet without the assistance of a decent sample study on what the pitch is like. There have been just two ODI at the Arun Jaitley Stadium in six years. Australia and New Zealand defended 272 and 242 respectively. However, in IPL there have been runs galore.

In the last 12 matches, seven first-innings have produced scores of 170 or more and three of those were more than 200. It won't be a surprise, therefore, if it's batting friendly. Both teams to score 275 is 13/10 with Sportsbook.

How to play

India are 1.865/6 with South Africa 2.1211/10. If we do get a flat surface we would expect the side batting first to take quite a drastic cut. That means South Africa can flip the odds - and then a bit more to the 1.705/7 region.

For game two it was a choice affair and that is probably the right starting point. India are playing a reserve team don't forget. Although South Africa lost in Ranchi, any bettor considering them should hope that Bavuma does not return.

The hosts looked in threatening form and if they do get the opportunity to bat first they could put the game beyond South Africa, whose strength is with the ball rather than the willow.

Tops value

Janne Malan is still giving us a 10% edge on implied probability versus win rate even though he's been cut to 10/3. Quinton de Kock and Shikhar Dhawan have been boosted to 11/4 for top team bat by Sportsbook.

Kishan and Iyer are 9/2 respectively for top India runscorer. Man of the match may have some interest if it is flat. Batters should dominate so Dhawan, de Kock and Malan catch the eye at 15/2, 8/1 and 10/1.