India v South Africa Fourth T20 Tips: Hosts finding their feet

India v South Africa
Friday 17 June, 14.30
TV: Live on Sky Sports

India back on track

India produced almost the perfect game last time out after two poor efforts. They combined batting power and bowling skill for a comprehensive 48-run success.

Batting first they went off like a rocket thanks to Ruturaj Gaikwad and Ishan Kishan striking at 162 and 154 respectively. Eventually they posted 179. A perfect ten would have been a score of 200 considering the platform built by the openers. They did fall away at the death.

It didn't prove costly. Five balls after the end of the powerplay they had the game in their pocket with three South Africans back in the hutch.

Yuz Chahal and Harshal Patel were the pick of the wicket-takers with three and four each respectively. But Bhuv Kumar's economy rate of just 5.25 was a big factor, too.

With two to play, India are alive and kicking. It would be a surprise if they changed a winning team at this juncture.

Probable XI: Gaikwad, Ishan, Shreyas, Pant, Hardik, Karthik, Axar, Harshal, Kumar, Avesh, Chahal

De Kock back?

Quinton de Kock could make a comeback following a wrist injury for this one. South Africa desperately need his impetus and experience up front.

His usual partner, Aiden Markram, has been ruled out of the tour, however. That means that when De Kock returns, Temba Bavuma is guaranteed to continue in the opening berth. Reeza Hendricks will make way

In the long run, it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world if Bavuma was to continue to fail. he has to be one of the weakest opening bats in the format. As skip, though, he's hard to budge.

Another potential change is brining in out-and-out wicket-taker Lungi Ngidi for Anrich Nortje. Nortje was pricey in game two, bowling only two overs for 23.

Possible XI: De Kock, Bavuma, Pretorius, Van der Dussen, Klaasen, Miller, Parnell, Rabada, Maharaj, Shamsi, Ngidi

Pitch report

Irritatingly, we're guessing on the pitch. There hasn't been a T20 played at Rajkot since November 2019 - India chased 154 against Bangladesh with ease. Apart from that we have a 10-game chunk to go on from the Syed Mushtaq in January 2018.

We'll take the runs numbers as a guide rather than a strategy. Runs were on the low side with 160 or more busted four times in the first dig. Unsurprisingly there was a toss bias at play; seven of the games were won by the chaser.

The best advice is not to start going in heavy on a massive amount of runs in the first dig. Sometimes saving a loser is as important as looking for a winner. If you're feeling punch, we expect to be able to go under the runs par line in the low 170s. Bet the market here

India in a chase

India have shortened up to 1.664/6 from the 1.705/7 region. That's disappointing off the back of one win. South Africa are 2.466/4.

Considering the toss bias above, that plays perfectly into our hands. We were only considering getting with the hosts in game three if they were chasing because over the last two years they have been so consistent in doing so.

To do so, the sort of price that would interest us is around the 1.804/5 mark. South Africa's attack does not hold up so well under pressure in a chase one suspects. Bet the market here

Tops value

De Kock has been boosted to 3/1 for top SA bat. That's a price we'd normally be all over. But to do so we have to accept that we're wagering on a guy who might not be 100% fit. A wrist injury can be debilitating for a batter.

Previously we've advised David Miller at 11/1. Well, the 10/1 is not far off so we're prepared to go back in again. It's no ideal he's down there at No 6 but with Bavuma and Dwaine Pretorius not convincing, he's worth a bet.

For India, Hardik Pandya catches the eye at 8/1 Recently appointed skip for the forthcoming Ireland series, he might be able to throw his weight around and put pressure on Rishabh Pant to bat at No 4. Bet the Sportsbook markets here