India v South Africa
Sunday 19 June, 14:30
TV: live on Sky Sports
India looking stronger
India have roared back from two-nil down to take it to a decider. They have shown a marked improvement since the second ODI when their bowling and then batting let them down respectively.
Perhaps the upturn in fortunes has been down to players becoming more familiar with their roles. This is, after all, something of an audition for the T20 World Cup squad.
Some players have made irresistible contributions, notably Ishan Kishan and Dinesh Karthik. The former will pile pressure on KL Rahul for example.
Avesh Khan, whose four wickets rolled South Africa for 87 in Rajkot, has also made an impression. Before that innings he had been eye-catchingly mean. Harshal Patel also looks like a pick with seven wickets.
Probable XI: Ishan, Gaikwad, Shreyas, Pant, Hardik, Karthik, Axar, Hasrhal, Kumar, Avesh, Chahal
South Africa lost their way as soon as Quinton de Kock injured his wrist. He didn't look that comfortable in his return and at the moment he is personifying their struggles.
They are unsure and unbalanced, although much of that could be solved thanks to another injury. Temba Bavuma retired hurt in game four with a shoulder injury after being struck by Bhuv Kumar.
There is little doubt that Bavuma is one of the worst T20 openers in the international game. Think about how many franchises would pay money for him top open? It gives South Africa the opportunity to reset, either with Reeza Hendricks returning or finding a slot for Tristan Stubbs.
Other changes have been made. Lungi Ngidi came in for Kagiso Rabada. Marco Jansen replaced Wayne Parnell. It should be expected that Rabada returns for the must-win contest with Anrich Nortje, who didn't bowl his full quota, not up to full speed.
Probable XI: De Kock, Hendricks, Pretorius, Van der Dussen, Klaasen, Miller, Jansen, Rabada, Maharaj, Shamsi, Ngidi.
The Bengaluru surface is usually full of runs. In the last eight matches - a sequence stretching back to February 2019 - five first-innings in unaffected matches by the weather has seen 170 or more busted. The 2018 IPL season saw five of seven first-innings with totals of 170 or more.
Both teams to score 160 at 5/6 and both to score 170 at 13/8 therefore has appeal. The latter has won in six of the last eight. Bet the Sportsbook markets here. We will also be looking for around 3.505/2 that 190 or more gets busted on the runs market. Also check prices for 200 or more. It can be very flat indeed. Bet the runs market here.
India in a chase please
We have been keener on India since they lost that second game due to players looking more in tune. But the odds are not much fun. India at 1.664/6 is not for us while South Africa are a tricky proposition because of consecutive abject displays.
What we would hope for is a strong South Africa showing batting first and the opportunity to get with India chase 180-190 at around the 2.206/5 mark. It has been a difficult ground to defend on and such a strategy would suits India's strength, which is chasing. Bet the match odds here.
De Kock can top score
De Kock has been boosted to 16/5 with Kishan also the beneficiary of a boost - this time to 10/3. De Kock is very tempting on win rate. And we may have to take a risk that the wrist niggle has improved with the gap between games.
What swings it is QDK's strike rate of 147 at the ground and an average of 46. That should make him feel swell, rather than worrying about the swell on his wrist.
In Rajkot we had two bad beats. Hardik Pandya was denied by a late surge by Karthik and Miller has the win in his sights after the top order had been blown away. It's the second time they have let us down. Hardik remains at 8/1 but we can't have the cut from 10s to 17/2 after a failure for Miller. Hardik also has a strong record at the venue. Bet the Sportsbook markets here.