India v New Zealand First T20 Tips: Yadav and Phillips a reliable pair

Ed Hawkins
26 January 2023
2:30 min read

Suryakumar Yadav is a bet at 4/1

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Ed Hawkins finds bets at 4/1, 9/2 and 7/1 for the first match at Ranchi on Friday...

India v New Zealand
Friday 27 January, 13:30
TV: Live on YouTube

Team news

India's batting power proved too much for New Zealand in the ODI series. They have rested Rohit Sharma, Virat Kohli and KL Rahul. Some might argue that such a move has been long overdue and they're a better team without them in this format.

The challenge is to get the balance right. Rahul Tripathi may bat ahead of Suryakumar Yadav at No 3 and if that happens they are likely to have seven bowling options. If that's one too many one from Prithvi Shaw or Ruturaj Gaikwad will be added but possibly bat out of position.

Possible XI: Ishan, Gill, Tripathi, Yadav, Hardik, Hooda, Sundar, Mavi, Umran Malik, Chahal Arshdeep

Mitchell Santner will lead New Zealand in this series. He could well push for three spin options with Michael Bracewell and Ish Sodhi available. Left-arm quick Ben Lister can add variation to the attack.

They look to be suspect with the bat. Their best hitters, Glenn Phillips and Bracewell, could do with being bumped up the order. As it stands we expect Dane Cleaver to come in and bat No 3 or 4. He is yet to establish himself.

Possible XI: Allen, Conway, Mitchell, Cleaver, Phillips, Bracewell, Santner, Sodhi, Ferguson, Lister, Tickner

Pitch report

Five of the last 11 at Ranchi have seen first-inningss scores go under 160. India chased 153 with 16 balls to spare versus the Kiwis on this ground in 2021. Batting first, New Zealand may well do well to get as many. This line-up looks fragile and playing under 160 could be a call. The wicket has taken heavy spin (three of the top-wicket-takers are all twirlers)

How to play

New Zealand have lost five of their last six versus the hosts in India in T20. After the whitewash in the ODI series it is not surprising to see the hosts as short as 1.454/9.

The best hope for the Kiwis is to bowl first and hope that the pitch turns, bringing those three spinners into the game. in that scenario they can trade shorter than 3.1511/5.

Tops value

The good news is that Surykumar Yadav, who was going off at 11/4 versus Sri Lanka for top India bat, is at 4s with Sportsbook. He is bang on an 11/4 shot on win rate in the last 12 months. Hardik Pandya is also win-rate value at 7/1.

For the Kiwis Phillips is tried and trusted. The 9/2 is what we expected and gives us an edge of ten percentage points on how often he wins.

Ed Hawkins P-L

2023: -0.17
2022:+19.79
2021: +29.41pts
2020: +5.91pts
2019: +37.25pts
2018: +23.53pts
2017: +12pts
2016: +18.1pts
2015: +38pts
2014: +31.5pts
2013: +25pt

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