During Australia's T20 series defeat by England in the summer, this column advised betting Glenn Maxwell in each of the three matches for top Australia runscorer because his odds were in our favour on two-year win rate. He didn't win. And when he was underpriced again for the ODIs that followed, we lost our nerve and missed out on a juicy winner.
The good news is that Maxwell is underpriced again. The better news is that we have more mental fortitude. The Big Show has eight wins in his last 26 appearances for Australia, notching at implied probability of 30.7%. Sportsbook offer odds of 5/1, implied probability of 16.7%. It's a hefty old chunk.
But to bet a wrong price we have to understand why it is wrong. Sportsbook have gone that high about Maxwell because he could bat as low as No 5 and oddsmakers are far more enamoured with where a batter bats in this format than how often he wins.
We are keeping fingers crossed, though, that Maxwell could be promoted up the order. As discussed in our match odds preview, David Warner has withdrawn from the squad due to injury while Marcus Stoinis, set to open with Aaron Finch, is a major doubt with a side strain.
Maxwell is unlikely to be promoted to open but No 3 or at least No 4 is on the cards, positions he has batted at since 2019 for his country.
Our man is also in terrific nick. At the Manuka Oval on Wednesday, Maxwell probably should have got his team home in a tight chase but his ball-striking was superb.
Australia last two years top bat wins/matches
Finch 5 1t/29
M Marsh 2t/5
Virat Kohli and KL Rahul share market favourite status at 11/4 the pair for top India bat. The great man will bat at No 3, the coming man will surely open. Who to bet?
Rahul, the top bat in the IPL. He gives us a smidge of value with Sportsbook with implied probability of 28%. Kohli is rated at 24% by our database. Sportsbook's 11/4 is 26.7%
The man who trumps them both, though is Manish Pandey. We weren't expecting him to play but the word is he could bat as high as No 5 (he was down at No 6 in the most recent series versus New Zealand).
Pandey is remarkably consistent for a lower-order player as the numbers below show and there is a whopping 12-point edge for us at 14s.
India - top bat wins/matches
Rohit 10 1t/38
Dhawan 6 1t/32
Top bowler wins/matches
Bumrah 2 4t/26
Bhuvi 2 3t/21
Kuldeep 5 3t/18
Chahal 5 6t/29
Hardik 2 t/20
The Big Past Preview Part I on Cricket...Only Bettor