First Ashes Test Day Five In-play Tips: Back a slow start from the Aussies

• Broad brace propels England ahead

• Forecast is for rain in the morning

• Overcast conditions to favour England

England v Australia
Tuesday 20 June, 11:00
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Widely a billed as a potential classic between two very evenly matched sides, the first test has delivered precisely that. Going into the final day, England are slight favourites at 2.1411/10, Australia are 2.3411/8, while the draw is still regarded a runner at 9.617/2.

Late Broad wickets turned the match

As we have come to expect from England test matches of late, momentum has swung back and forth frequently. Australia crashed to a low of 1.25 before losing their first wicket at 61-1. Then Stuart Broad claimed the prize scalps of Steve Smith and Marnus Labuschagne to complete the turnaround.

As it stands, Australia need 174 with seven wickets remaining. The 98 scheduled overs for Tuesday is ample time to produce a result but they are very unlikely to play that many. The latest Met Office Weather Forecast predicts rain in the morning, reducing to 50% likelihood at 12pm and 30% at 2pm.

Given the high scoring rate so far in the match, 50 overs play should be enough to determine the result, but keep an eye on that forecast throughout the morning!

England deserve favouritism

At risk of sitting on the fence, this is incredibly tight. I have backed Australia and was very confident prior to that late Broad spell, with memories of last year's facile 378 final innings chase fresh in the mind. Now for the first time in the match, I'm leaning towards England.

The pitch hasn't been offering much for the bowlers but given there is rain around and humidity, I suspect tomorrow will see some overcast conditions, offering swing and dramatically improving England's chances.

Granted, I was taken by how well the Aussies recovered in their first innings, despite being disadvantaged by conditions and losing Smith and Labuschagne cheap. But that relied upon a superb innings from Khawaja and their long tail was exposed.

Check these run lines

One positive on that front for the Aussies is Scott Boland already contributing 13 runs as a nightwatchman. His Under/Over Runs line is 20.5 at 10/111.91, so he needs eight to land the overs. That looks gettable given how he started tonight, hitting 13 off 19. Currently on 34, Khawaja's line is 66.5.

There is a 137.5 run line for Australia's total after 40 overs. They've played 30 so this target is 31 runs off the first 10 overs of play.

On the basis of the lowest run-rate of any innings so far in this match being 3.32, 3.1 isn't a huge ask, but beware conditions. If overcast, expect a slow, cautious start for Australia. I'm backing 30 or under off the first ten.

Other live markets for day five include Top Australia Batsman, for which Khawaja is 8/151.53, ahead of Travis Head at 7/24.50, Cameron Green 13/27.50 and Alex Carey 11/112.00.

Khawaja is 3/10 to make a first innings fifty. Head is 15/82.88, Green 9/43.25 and Carey 11/43.75 for the same target.