England v Sri Lanka T20 World Cup Tips: One last upset if England chase and stumble

• England have won 3 of last 11 chasing
• Can Sri Lanka play as a team?
• Moeen Ali outrageous value

England v Sri Lanka
Saturday 5 November, 08:00
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Team news

England play last in Group 1 so know exactly what they will need to do if they are to progress. It's a big advantage.

Last time out they came back to beat New Zealand with a decent showing with the ball. They were chaotic with the bat, though, and their batting order made no sense. Ben Stokes is causing them issues. And they don't really know what to do with him.

Probable XI: Buttler, Hales, Malan, Stokes, Brook, Moeen, Livingstone, S Curran, Woakes, Rashid, Wood

Sri Lanka have welcomed back Pranod Madushan and the right-arm quick could cause England problems. They have a clutch of individuals are as talented as anyone but can enough of them come to the party at the same time.

At least two from Kusal Mendis, Charith Asalanka and Dasun Shanaka need to produce with the ball while Madushan, Theekshana and Wanindu Hasaranga offers 12 overs of danger.

Probable XI: Kusal, Nissanka, Dhananjaya, Asalanka, Rajapaksa, Shanaka, Hasaranga, Madushan, Theekshana, Lahiru, Rajitha

Pitch report

The SCG has been reliable for batters in this tournament. In the five games so far four first-innings have produced 170 or more. We would expect whichever team who bats first to go well. England need to bat first (more of that in a minute) and they could put their foot down to trouble the scoreboard for 190 or more at around the 3.55/2 mark.

How to play

England are 1.241/4 and Sri Lanka 5.39/2. There is a route to victory for Sri Lanka here, although it does involve the toss going their way.

There's no venue bias. Instead it's England's record chasing which could let in Sri Lanka. They have won only three of their last 11. On a flat SCG track England could well get nervous if Sri Lanka can muster 160-170, particulalry when Hasaranga warms to his task with the ball.

Tops value

Moeen Ali is 19/1 for top England bat. We don't expect the price to last but given that Mo has a 22% win rate in the last two years Sportsbook won't be able to go short enough to stop us. We recommend the wager down to11/1 because that's what he might be chopped too just before the off.

Buttler's a 2/1 chance on win rate but Sportsbook have boosted to 5/2. For Sri Lanka Rajapaksa and Shanaka are picks on ability at 5s and 10s. Hasaranga is 2/1 for top Sri Lanka bowler and he's returning at even money on the same study period.