England v South Africa
Sunday 24 July, 11:00
TV: Live on Sky Sports
Ready for runs
They say always look up against Headingley and it has never been more pertinent for the deciding match in the series. If the skies are clear and the sun is out we should expect a bat-dominated contest. If there is rain around, it could be a different story.
On a scorcher, the top-order players have a terrific opportunity to make hay. On a Headingley surface which has been like glass in the T20 Blast, the powerplay and chance to bat longest could produce a monster individual score.
Openers, then, are the first port of call when perusing the top match runscorer market. Jason Roy's awful return of one win in 17 on the team honours market rules him out but Jonny Bairstow, Quinton de Kock and Jannie Malan should prove popular.
Bairstow has merely threatened to post a big score as he failed to live up the hype following his red-ball form. It's curious that he has struggled in his supposed strongest format. Sportsbook go 9/2 that he is top match bat and a boosted 7/2 that he cops for England.
De Kock has been a disappointment, too. He is boosted to 10/3 for top South African and is 11/2 for top match bat. Malan, who has cost us twice on the team market, is 7/2 and 7/1 respectively. He has such a huge edge on win rate that it would be weak to ignore him now.
Rassie van der Dussen has to have a live chance across dual markets. The 9/2 for top Saffer is a bet on win rate by four percentage points versus implied probability. The 11/2 that Sportsbook offer about him outscoring everyone is tempting indeed.
Rassie has ground form. He made 95 at the venue in South Africa's 2019 win over Australia in the World Cup. De Kock also notched a fifty.
Bet the Sportsbook markets here.
In our match preview, we have advised Moeen Ali at 19/1 purely because it's a wrong price on where we expect him to bat. If that's not the sort of strategy that suits, it's possible to pin the price on win rate. It's only by a smidge though at 0.8%. Moeen is 6/1 for top match bat, that's big for a guy who could bat as high as No 4.
When runs are in the offing the relationship between top scoring and a man of the match gong is clear. So we need to be aware of prices for Bairstow at 7/1, De Kock at 8s, Rassie at 9s and Malan at 10s.
Top England bat wins/matches
S Curran 2/9
Top SA bat wins/matches
De Kock 3 t/16
Van der Dussen 4/18
t = tie