England v New Zealand Second Test Tips: Kane could be able

Ed Hawkins
09 June 2022
3:00 min read

Williamson needs to have worked hard in the break between the first and second Tests

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Ed Hawkins finds wagers at 3/1, 6/1 and 40/1 for the second Test at Trent Bridge from Friday on the players to follow markets...

"Hopefully Williamson will have been spending hours in the nets ever since because Sportsbook have boosted his price to 3/1 for top Kiwi in the first dig"

(1pt) Back Kane Williamson top NZ 1st inns bat 4.03/1

England v New Zealand
Friday 10 June, 11:00
TV: live on Sky Sports

Faith in Pope

If one required further evidence that England's batting is more suspect than a crate of champers arriving at No 10 during lockdown, look no further than the win rates for top bat in the first-innings.

In the last three years Zak Crawley and Ollie Pope have five wins apiece, enjoying hit rates of 21.7% and 22.7%. These are only slightly inferior returns than Joe Root (23.6%), who by almost every other metric is considered imperious. Crawley and Pope aren't fit to lace his boots.

And yet it was Crawley who won again at Lord's in the first Test. He is underrated by Sportsbook at 5/1 for a repeat.

What a conundrum this is for punters. Why? Because we can see with our own eyes Crawley's technical failings. We know he shouldn't really be good enough to win so often. Yet he does. He is as only as poor as his team-mates.

Pope is supremely talented. Most observers would rate him as heir apparent to Root's majesty. Yet we also know that England are damaging his chance with the ludicrous decision to bat him at No 3, arguably the position for the most technical accomplished, assured and experienced batter in the team.

We are not in the business of going in for back-to-back wins with wins the name of our game, so Pope is our selection, albeit slightly heavy-hearted, at 6/1. Root is boosted to 23/10, an implied probability of 32.3%.

Root is overrated on every market. And why wouldn't he be? The bookies don't want to take a chance on one of the best in the business.

For example, he is even money for a fifty in the first dig when, in fact, he notches 34% of the time in the last two years. For a century he is 3/1, a price which is out by two ticks on win rate. On a better batting wicket we might take a chance.

There's a way of getting with another senior England player. James Anderson relishes bowling at Trent Bridge and despite Stuart broad destroying Australia there, the Lancastrian has been more potent.

In four of the last six Tests Anderson has returned on top bowler in the first innings. The issue is the 9/4 is a very skinny on win rate. Bet the Sportsbook markets here

Top England bat wins/matches last 3 years
Crawley 5/23
Pope 5/22
Root 9/38
Stokes 4/27
Bairstow 2/21
Foakes 1/7

Top England bat wins/matches last 3 years
Anderson 12 8t/52
Broad 10 10t/57
Potts t/1
Leach 1/18

Getting the willies

If we're a little skittish about getting with Pope, we're doubling up on the nervous energy with a selection of Kane Williamson.

The New Zealand skipper has looked out of touch since the beginning of the Indian Premier League. And that feeling didn't change when he was dismissed twice by Matt Potts at Lord's.

Hopefully Williamson will have been spending hours in the nets ever since because Sportsbook have boosted his price to 3/1 for top Kiwi in the first dig. It gives us an edge of 3.1%.

The other New Zealander we're interested in is Kyle Jamieson. He should be skinnier than 40/1, although we're slightly worried that he could bat as low as No 9 with Michael Bracewell a possible starter, as discussed in the match preview.

Jamieson, however, is a bet to be top Kiwi bowler in the first dig. As is Tim Southee. Both have matching win rates at 33.3%.

You can dutch the pair at 11/4 and 3/1 If you wish but we like to astick our neck out. And we do that by working out who gives us the biggest edge on win rate versus price. Jamieson's 8.5% beats Southee's 6.6%. Bet the Sportsbook markets here

NZ top batsman wins/matches
Williamson 9/32
Young 0/8
Conway 2/7
Latham 8/41
Nicholls 6/37
Blundell1/15
Southee 1/34
Jamieson 1/16

NZ top bowler wins/matches
Southee 10 2t/30
Boult 7/29
Wagner 7 2t/28
Henry 1/9
Jamieson 4 2t/12
(t = ties)

**Don't miss Ed's in-play advice for Trent Bridge at the end of each day's play