Hawkeye on England v New Zealand First Test Tips: Raise a glass to Jamieson

Ed Hawkins
01 June 2022
3:00 min read

Williamson looks out of touch

Join

View market

Twitter

Facebook

Ed Hawkins finds wagers at 66/1, 6/1, 7/2 and 5/6 for the first Test at Lord's starting from Thursday...

"Jamieson has won for this column before at 33s for top bat. So we’re surprised to get as big as 66s. He ticks the win rate box"

(0.5pts) Back Kyle Jamieson top New Zealand 1st innings bat 67.066/1

Pope must fly

On day one of the English cricket summer we have a test of our mettle. Do we blindly follow the stats or do we proceed with caution?

Both Zak Crawley and Ollie Pope, who is likely to be returned to the XI, are bets on win rate with Sportsbook for top England bat in the first-innings.

Crawley is 5/1 (16.7%) when his win rate (18.3%) suggests he should skinnier. Likewise Pope at 6s. Sportsbook are giving up a whopping 9.5 points to punters.

There are problems with both batters. Crawley has been in wretched form when almost every other opener has found life easy in county cricket. Pope has been in decent touch but his elevation o No 3 is, frankly, bizarre. How to ruin a once-in-a-generation batting talent.

Pope may well be worth the risk considering the edge in his favour. The guy can play. And if Brendon McCullum is to be any use at all, he must get the best out of him.

As ever, Joe Root (24% win rate) is no value even at a boosted 21/10 (32.3%). Bet with Sportsbook here

Top England bat wins/matches last 3 years
Crawley 4/22
Pope 5/21
Root 9/37
Stokes 4/26
Bairstow 2/20
Foakes 1/6
Lawrence t/11
Woakes 1/19
Overton 2/8

Top England bowler wins/matches last 3 years
Anderson 12 7t/51
Broad 10 10t/56
Leach 1/18

Short Williamson

Plenty going on for the top Kiwi bats and bowlers markets. In fact, we're spoilt for choice.

Let's start with the main man, Kyle Jamieson. Jamieson, who has been highlighted before in this column as a future world No 1 all-rounder, is a bet for most wickets and runs.

With the ball he is dangerous. He has a win rate of 36% so we have no qualms about snaffling what is a very big price indeed at 7/2. Sure, he has stiff competition and a case can be made for Tim Southee (six wickets last summer at HQ) and Neil Wagner at 3/1 and 11/4.

Jamieson has won for this column before at 33s for top bat. So we're surprised to get as big as 66s. He ticks the win rate box, obviously. Bet with Sportsbook here

Kane Williamson is a poor favourite at a boosted 3/1. Not least because he is out of form and rhythm following his stint in the IPL.

Williamson is worth taking on the player performance market. Sportsbook offer over/under 84.5 (1pt per run, 10 per catch, 20 per wicket).

On average make-ups in the last three years, Williamson is returning just over 86 per game. However, if you'd have sold at the market price in each of those 14 matches you'd have won eight times. Bet with Sportsbook here

NZ top bowler wins/matches
Southee 9 2t/29
Boult 7/28
Wagner 7 2t/28
Henry 1/9
Jamieson 4 2t/11
(t = ties)

NZ top batsman wins/matches
Williamson 9/31
Young / 7
Conway 2/6
Latham 8/40
Nicholls 6/37
Blundell1/14
Southee 1/33
Jamieson 1/15