England v India Third T20 Tips: England need to blast back in runfest

Ed Hawkins
09 July 2022
2:30 min read

Roy has struggled

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Ed Hawkins previews the final game of the series from Trent Bridge on Sunday and a flat wicket should mean a high first-innings score...

"We could be looking at a very big first-innings score. Keep eyes peeled for 3.505/2 about 190 or more"

(1pt) Back 190 or more first-innings runs from 3.505/2

England v India
Sunday 10 July, 14:30
TV: live on Sky Sports

England flop

This is a ridiculously fast turnaround from games two to three. Boy, do England need some head space after two disastrous batting displays meant they couldn't keep the series alive until the last game. It is only England's third home series defeat since 2014.

Twice their top order has been blown away against an India attack which, although professional and top class, shouldn't be capable of successive domination.

At Edgbaston, England's chase of a moderate 170 was all over by then tenth over when Dawid Malan was the fifth batter out. For all the talk about England's bowling being a problem it should be a major concern that the batters have flopped twice.

Jason Roy and Jos Buttler have managed just eight runs between them. Malan and Moeen Ali, who have been mediocre, have given barely a veneer of respectability to their efforts.

Unless Phil Salt has returned to the squad after playing for Lancashire in the Blast, it will be the same top order again. Richard Gleeson was a highlight with three wickets on debut.

Possible XI: Roy, Buttler, Malan, Livingstone, Brook, Moeen, S Curran, Willey, Jordan, Gleeson, Parkinson

India too strong

India will be cockahoop. A weaker XI won easily in the first match, potentially their first-choice XI handed out a thumping in their second. Yet they could still improve.

The returning players from the Test team who all made significant contributions apart from Virat Kohli, which is telling.

Rishabh Pant replaced Ishan Kishan as an opener in a surprising move and got India off to a flyer, Ravi Jadeja rescue them from a low total with death hitting and Jasprit Bumrah took two for ten.

Only Kohli flopped. And it is mighty harsh on Deepak Hooda that he should mis out, although not in the least bit surprising because India refuse to believe that the former skip is a hindrance.

Probable XI: Rohit, Pant, Kohli, Yadav, Hardik, Jadeja, Karthik, Harshal, Kumar, Bumrah, Chahal

Pitch report

Trent Bridge has been a batting paradise this season in the Blast across six matches. The lowest first-innings total was 168 while Warwickshire smashed 261 against Nottinghamshire and the hosts then managed 247 against Derbyshire. England conceded 232 against Pakistan last summer, losing by 31 runs.

We could be looking at a very big first-innings score. Keep eyes peeled for 3.505/2 about 190 or more in the first-innings market. We're also likely to be keen for 15/8 for both getting 170 or more and 11/4 & 9/2 for 180 & 190 respectively with Sportsbook.

Match odds

As discussed above we expect runs on a fast-scoring Trent Bridge surface and outfield. And that means we need to be cautious about a pre-toss wager, even if we're surprised India are not shorter than 1.845/6. England are 2.226/5. Bet the match odds here

The side batting first has the opportunity to put something very big down indeed, and the ground stats will not have gone unnoticed. With that in mind, if England bat first and throw off the shackles we could well see the odds flipped by the break - and then some. England could be in the 1.705/7 region. India should shorten too if they bat first.

The flips may not end there. This could be a T20 classic with two batting sides going shot-for-shot on a road. India, by the way, are masters in the chase winning ten of their last 11.

England, of course, need to find some confidence with the bat. And there will be some fear in their rooms if they have to go after something monstrous. It's now seven defeats in nine.

Tops value

Buttler gets a boost with Sportsbook to 3/1 for top England bat. Surely he can't fail again? Liam Livingstone took 103 off 43 against Pakistan last year at this ground. He's shown nowt so far, though, in the series with just 15 runs. He is 4/1.

For India Kohli is a massive 11/2. Pant's price has contracted significantly to 3/1. Keep an eye out for Hooda's price at 5/1 just in case he comes in to replace Surykumar Yadav. If he doesn't play it's money back. Bet the market here

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Why Kohli rates a standout bet