England v India Third T20 Player Tips: Kohli no 11/2 chance

Ed Hawkins
10 July 2022
2:30 min read

Kohli is 11/2 for top India bat

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Ed Hawkins argues that on batting order and win rate the great India batter is underrated for runs at Trent Bridge on Sunday...

£Despite his issues, Kohli has a win rate of 31.2% in his last 16 outings. Sportsbook rate his chances at 15.4%"

(2pts) Back Virat Kohli top India bat 6.5011/2

England v India
Sunday 10 July, 14:30
TV: live on Sky Sports

Kohli underrated

The third T20 from Trent Bridge is a dead rubber but it feels like a watershed moment for cricket gamblers for one reason: the price of Virat Kohli to be top India bat.

Sportsbook have taken a view. They've written him off. They've said: he's finished. Kohli, the great artisan, has been chalked up at 11/2. Eleven to Two. It's the biggest price he has ever been in T20. And the biggest price he has ever been in any format, anywhere since he established himself as an international.

The reason is a chronic sequence of form. He has no century in any format since November 2019 for India, of course. He averages 29 in Tests in the last 12 months, 23 in ODI and 27 in T20.

That latter figure is a slight anomaly. And to be truthful, the decision to price Kohli like an also-ran would have been better suited to the five-day format. The loss of form in that arena has looked more like permanent decline.

As we said before game two in this series, Kohli's strike rates make him a poor T20 player by modern standards. His more technical, selfish game has been consumed by the need for boundaries. He is a relic to T20's formative years in that regard.

In the last 12 months for India he strikes at 110. It's 117 in all T20s this year. It is patently worse than not good enough. It costs his team matches. Just as he did in the IPL where he has been the biggest reason for Bangalore' trophy-less history.

And yet Kohli is outstanding value to top score on almost every rationale. For a start, he bats at No 3. Since when were No 3s priced as big as 11/2? They're not.

Secondly, Kohli has strong win rate credentials. Just because he plays the wrong way and is not worth his place in the side doesn't make him a bad bet. On the contrary, Kohli is so concerned with preserving his wicket and reputation it makes him a good bet.

Despite his issues, Kohli has a win rate of 31.2% in his last 16 outings. Sportsbook rate his chances at 15.4%. It is the biggest gap between win rate and implied probability we have seen for an established top order player in international cricket. Bet the market here.

Top bat wins/matches
KL 3/14
Dhawan 2/7
Kohli 5 t/16
Shreyas 4/19
Sky 4/18
Jadeja 2/10
Rohit 4/19
Pant t/21
Ishan 2/18
Gaikwad 1/9
Karthik 1/9
Hooda 2/6

Top bowler wins/matches
Chahal 6t/20
Kumar 3 6t/25
Harshal 3 4/16
T=ties

Buttler bet

Perhaps Kohli's problems are in the mind. Which brings us to Jos Buttler, who has endured a miserable time as permanent England captain in his first two matches.

We may be premature with this niggling worry but Buttler could prove to a case of a player losing his magic because of the pressure of leadership.

Before Buttler established himself as an England player, one top coach revealed that he was a guy who could struggle with expectation. Buttler has overcome that foible but these doubts can return.

We certainly hope they don't. At 3/1 for top England bat we're backing him to come good. On win rate Buttler has implied probability of 29.1%. Sportsbook rate him at 29%. It's a gulf we cannot ignore. Bet the market here.

Top bat wins/matches
Roy 6/28
Malan 9/33
Buttler 7/24
Bairstow 4/33
Moeen 6/26
Livingstone 2/17
Vince 2/9
Banton 2/14
Jordan 1/37
Billings 0/11
Rashid 0/36

Top bowler wins/matches
Jordan 6 4t/36
Rashid 5 8t/33
Mahmood 1 t/11
Moeen 1 1t/24
Mills t/7
T=ties

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