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Sai Sudharsan has the ability to be world class
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Root still value for second-innings runs
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Woakes win-rate means he is not one to swerve
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Read the ultimate guide to the series here
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England v India
Wednesday 2 July, 11.00
TV: Live on Sky Sports
Being asked to bat at number three in England as an India batter who finds conditions totally alien and having to do so on debut? Who has Sai Sudharsan upset in the India camp?
Or maybe it's because he is so highly-rated with the potential to be one of the best in Test cricket. It is not hard to see why it's the latter. Sai seems to have the ability to do it all.
Many would have dimissed Sai as a T20 player after he finished top of the run lists in the IPL. But anyone who remembers his debut season in that tournament would have clocked a proper technician who struggled to score at the required tempo. He struck at 127 that season, averaging 36.
He showed he is a quick learner. Next year he came back and struck at 141 averaging 51. And he has has been remarkably consistent ever since. This year he played proper cricket shots in a remarkable run of consistency.
So getting to grips with the challenge of batting in England may not worry him. By the second innings in Leeds he looked as though he was finding his feet. By the end of this series we could well see the player that averages 55 in first-class cricket.
After scorching weather in England, the Edgbaston track may not be conducive to the seam and swing that Sai has seen so little of. It is now just a question of working out the best way to bet a player who has the ability and temperament to win for us.
Incidentally, if you bet £5 on the top first-innings run scorer for England or India on the Betfair Sportsbook, you will receive a free £5 bet if your chosen player scores 50 or more.
On the Exchange there is some 9.08/1 available on Sudharsan for top first-innings bat. The 7/18.00 about a first-innings century takes others out of the equation, more so (opposition bowlers, of course) the 9/43.25 that he reaches a 50. For the simplest win of all, go overs on his first-dig runs at 25.5 at 5/61.84. In time, he may well be a batter whose opening quote is in the mid-30s.
Others who may go well in terms of previous form are Rishabh Pant and Ravi Jadeja. Pant notched a 50 and ton on his only appearance at the ground in 2022. He smashed 146 in the first as he and Jadeja (104) put on 222 for the sixth wicket. Pant is 4/15.00 and Jadeja 9/110.00.
As an aside, we don't expect Nitish Kumar Reddy to play. He had a superb tour of Australia and can count himself unfortunate to have been dropped. Likewise to get a quote of 10s. He's better than that by half.
Back Sai Sudharsan over 25.5 1st inns runs
Get live Test series predictions on Betfair Predicts
There are marginal gains on the prices for Ben Stokes and Zak Crawley at 11/26.50 and 13/27.50 respectively for top England first-innings bat at Edgbaston based on the win-rate table below. Jamie Smith also gets a mention at a whopping 9/110.00 but he is going to be one to follow when there is something in the pitch for the bowlers, and that may not be this Test. Only last summer, however, Smith won the market with 95 against West Indies on this ground. Chris Woakes also notched a half-century.
Joe Root, of course, remains the mug bet with dreadful returns at consistent favourite status. As we have said before, in the bazball era Root may score runs but others score them more quickly. Instead we put faith in him for second-innings runs. This is when he excels. He has a win-rate of more than double in the last two years at a massive 33%. We would expect to get the 7/24.50 again.
It is a bonus that Root has an excellent record on this ground. He is the top runscorer there in the last 10 years with 920 runs in nine innings with an average of 70. In the second innings exclusively that figure drops only by two runs. We note Stokes's overall record of 273 runs in seven, which is poor.
Back Joe Root top England 2nd inns bat
Top bat win% last two years
Root |
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16.00% |
Duckett |
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12.50% |
Stokes |
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15.00% |
Crawley |
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14.29% |
Brook |
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21.05% |
Pope |
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19.05% |
Smith |
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27.27% |
Top first-innings wicket-taker
Chris Woakes should feel confident and cosseted on his home ground. But backing him to be top wicket-taker in the first-innings on that basis obviously doesn't quite cut it.
Instead we rely on basic facts. Woakes has won this market five times in 13. That's a return rate of 38%. Betfair Sportsbook make him a 28.6% chance at 5/23.50. It would make sense to get involved when there is such an edge in our favour.
We also expect Woakes to improve for the run. He disappointed at Headingley but, then again, if your name wasn't Jasprit Bumrah who didn't? There might not be a huge amount more for him in the surface but Woakes might make a technical adjustment to his action just as he did at the start of last summer.
He was criticised for looking innocuous at Lord's against West Indies and then hit back with 10 wickets in the next two at Old Trafford and Edgbaston. His aproach to the crease and action wasn't quite on point. It may that work has been done in the interim this time.
Back Chris Woakes top England 1st inns bowler