England v India First Test Tips: Headingley runfest on the cards

• England hot favourites for a 1-0 lead

• Hosts not guaranteed to get seam and swing

• Leeds ground report suggests a flat, dry surface

• Bumrah fitness crucial for India

• Read the ultimate guide to the series here

• Free £5 Bet when your First Innings Top Bat pick hits 50. Bet here

England v India
Friday 20 June, 11.00
TV: Live on Sky Sports

England v India First Test team news

England have named their XI two daysbefore for reasons which remain a mystery. The main selection issue they may have wrestled with was whether to find room for Jacob Bethell or play an extra pacer. Bethell is a good player and did well at No 3 in New Zealand but it would have been odd to risk imbalance for those reasons. Ollie Pope's ton against Zimbabwe means he keeps his spot.

Ben Stokes is protected from doing too much bowling with brydon Carse joining twin pacers Chris Woakes and Josh Tongue. Jamie Overton misses out 

England XI:  Crawley, Duckett, Pope, Root, Brook, Stokes, Smith, Carse, Woakes, Tongue, Bashir

India are a team in transition following the retirements of Rohit Sharma and Virat Kohli. Shubman Gill will lead.

They do boast a wealth of excellent batting options. KL Rahul and Karun Nair have a wealth of experience in England, which is rare. Sai Sudharsan looks capable of playing an anchor role. Yas Jaiswal and Rishabh Pant can match England for aggression. They may not have room for Nitish Kumar Reddy, an all-rounder who was exccellent in their 3-1 defeat by Australia.

The key is Jasprit Bumrah. It is unlikely he plays all five and it may be that the natural break for him comes for the third Test. Shardul Thakur may have sneaked into the XI given his form in a warm-up.

Possible India XI:  Jaiswal, Sudharsan, Gill, Rahul, Reddy/Nair, Pant, Jadeja, Thakur, Krishna, Bumrah, Siraj

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England v India First Test pitch report

• Six of the last seven have been won by the side batting second
• England have won six of the last seven
• The first-innings average runs per wicket is 22.5
• The fourth-innings average runs per wicket is 51.4
• The average runs per wicket for all innings is 28
• The last seven first-innings scores read: 263-329-78-179-174-427-298

Early pitch reports from Headingley suggest an extremely dry surface with very litte rain in the region since February. The groundsman expects a wicket which will give something to the bowlers on the first day but to get better and better to bat on. That is what the data says we should expect, too. We don't think it will break up significantly.

The forecast, as ever, is key. If there are overcast skies batting can be difficult with seam and swing available. But if the sun is out the surface often resembles a featherbed. Combining weather conditions with the state of the ball is a good way to strategise runs. If the sun is out and the ball old, partnerships can develop. If the ball is new and the skies are heavy, bowlers will be delighted.

At the moment, there is not even a cloud forecast for the first three days so getting ready to get long on runs is the way to go. For a first-innings runs play in-play have a look at what the ball is doing after about 12 overs or so. One option is to go long of innings runs or look for partnership runs.  Immeditaely Sportsbook's 5/61.84 that England bust 38.5 runs in the first ten overs is of interest. They will be keen to put down a marker. 

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England v India First Test match prediction

England are 1.695/7 with India 2.982/1 and the draw 13.012/1. One could be forgiven for baulking at that price about the home team given their propensity to give the opposition a chance with their style of play and the fact that they were hardly barnstorming in beating a dreadful Zimbabwe team

Chris Woakes aside, there should be significant worries about how they take 20 wickets or are able to bowl dry if the wicket is the same. One suspects seam and swing is required for them to thrive.

It doesn't look like they get that here.  But we do recognise that India have greater challenges. It is very tough to come into a five-Test series with so little preparation time and a young squad finding its way in alien conditions.

India, to borrow racing parlance, may improve for the run to set up a ding-dong series, which is why 3-2 the pair on the correct series score market has appeal.

For now the only real value which jumps out is the 9/25.50 that England win the game and hit the most fours and sixes. England strike at 71 compared to India's 57 in the last two years. They also average more fours per game. Over the same period India do hit more sixes but Rohit's retirment takes a chunk out of that threat while a more circumspect start from the tourists is expected.

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