England v India First T20 Tips: Shorting runs not as crazy as it seems

Ed Hawkins
06 July 2022
2:30 min read

Buttler leads England and is 11/4 for top bat

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Ed Hawkins thinks the tourists can go well in a chase against an England attack below par at Southampton on Thursday...

"They could at least trade favourites from a potentially bigger position at the break. It should be remembered that this is far from a full-strength England attack"

Trade India in-play batting second to 1.9110/11

England v India
Thursday 7 July, 18:00
TV: live on Sky Sports

England new broom

It's another new era for England. And given how those have worked out lately it could be wise to buckle up. Jos Buttler takes over white-ball captaincy duties from the retired Eoin Morgan. Buttler will look to make an immediate impact on the T20 team which has not reached its ceiling.

We expect Buttler to set the tone from the opening berth. An early indication of how gung-ho he wants this team to be to could be answered by whether Dawid Malan is picked. Malan has been remarkably consistent in T20 but is considered - wrongly probably - to be 'too slow' for the modern game.

Instead of Malan they may want Jonny Bairstow in as quickly as possible and to use Phil Salt or Harry Brook as a finisher. It is possible Malan and Bairstow are interchangeable at Nos 3 and 4.

With the ball, there is no Adil Rashid so Matt Parkinson gets to audition. Left-arm pacers Reece Topley, David Willey and Tymal Mills will be paired down to two. Sam Curran, in blistering form for Surrey, could play a key role as the bowling all-rounder. Chris Jordan may get a go again to lengthen the batting but Richard Gleeson is available.

Possible XI: Roy, Buttler, Malan, Bairstow, Livingstone, Moeen, S Curran, Willey, Jordan, Parkinson, Mills

Rohit fit

India have been boosted by the news that Rohit Sharma has returned a negative Covid test so will be fit to lead. But India are not at what they would call 'full strength'.

Virat Kohli, Rishabh Pant, Jasprit Bumrah and Shreyas Iyer will not join up with the full squad until the second match because of Test duty. Certainly Kohli should not be considered a loss because of his poor form in the format.

There is a reasonable amount to like about the possible XI so long as the players replicate roles honed against Ireland in the 2-0 win. Specifically Deepak Hooda who should be given licence to hit with abandon at the top of the order.

India may have the edge with the ball. In Yuz Chahal they have the best spinner and in Umran Malik the one bowler of searing pace.

Possible XI: Rohit, Ishan, Hooda, Yadav, Hardik, Karthik, Axar/Kumar, Harshal, Avesh, Chahal, Umran

Pitch report

The Southampton surface has a reputation for runs. England posted 180 against Sri Lanka last summer in a crushing win. However, runscoring has not been easy over a chunk of matches. This season in the Blast there have been only three scores of 160 or more from six matches. Two of those were big totals of 221 and 199.

In the last 12 years the average run rate per year has never been higher than 8.33. That would suggest opening runs par lines in the high 170s (possibly 178.5) would be a sell.

England, in the last two years, have an average run rate of 8.6. India, by the same filter, have an average run rate of 8.7. Both numbers are further fuel to a short. Bet the runs line here. England's runs may even tip over to the 180s.

India in the hunt

England are 1.768/11 favourites. India are priced at 2.285/4. The vibe is, of course, very much pro England because of the shellacking they dished out in the fourth innings of the Test. It shouldn't be a factor on the odds but it is.

Bairstow, of course, will be brazen and bullish again. But one wonders whether India have what it takes to curb England's enthusiasm for chaos. Chahal is so important in that regard. He could squeeze England for six or seven an over and be all the difference.

The toss is also key because of India's strength in the chase. Although personnel is different a record of 10 wins in their last 11 suggest they could at least trade favourites from a potentially bigger position at the break. It should be remembered that this is far from a full-strength England attack.

So the strategy depends on India chasing. We'd then be looking to back them at around 2.407/5 to trade as favourites at around 1.9010/11. Laying off for half the stake should give you a good day. Bet the match odds here. Bet the match odds here

Tops value

Buttler and Rohit have been boosted to 11/4 by Sportsbook for top England India bat respectively. Both men are likely to prove popular at such prices. It's worth noting that Buttler is 7/2 for top match bat and Rohit 5/1.

As we're so keen on Chahal to have an impact, Sportsbook's 5/2 that he takes most India wickets is another eyecatcher. Harshal Patel, certain to bowl at the death, is probably the toppiest at 10/3.