England v India
Tuesday 12 July, 13:00
TV: live on Sky Sports
Jonny be good
It's been a summer full of runs in England and that has seen batters performing consistently on the top-bat markets. Does the same happen when England and India clash in south London?
We hope so because Jonny Bairstow looks a standout price to be top runscorer in game one. Sportsbook have made him a surprisingly big 5.59/2 for the honours.
Perhaps they know something we don't. We expect him to return to his opening berth. The price is for a No 4. #
Sportsbook have boosted Jos Buttler to 4.03/1, which suggests they think he will throw his weight around as the new skip and go in first.
That is the basis of our first wager - a batting order value pick. Luckily, Bairstow also fits the bill on win rate as you will see from the data below. He has four wins in his last 12. That gives us an edge of a massive 15% when it comes to win rate versus Sportsbook's implied probability.
We do like Ben Stokes, too, at a whopping 8.07/1 but as discussed in our match preview, he could bat as low as No 6.
When Stokes had his golden run on this market leading up to and during the World Cup, he was batting at No 5. He's also only batted in five ODIs since that epic 2019 innings in the Lord's final, not returning a win in the process.
Joe Root also returns but we're never likely to get involved at 4.3310/3 despite two tons in four innings against India in the last five years.
Top England bat wins/matches last 2 years
S Curran 1/8
Pant the man
If form does hold then Suryakumar Yadav is a fancy for top India bat at 5.59/2. Yadav produced a sensational innings at Trent Bridge on Sunday in a losing cause and his confidence will be sky high.
But this is a very competitive market in terms of ability. Rohit Sharma and Shikhar Dhawan are gun players in the opening berth, Virat Kohli retains an excellent record in terms of weight of runs in the last three years (he's their No 1), while Shreyas Iyer has been consistent after breaking into the side.
The man of real interest is Rishabh Pant. Pant might open the batting here so that India can find room for an extra bowler.
That's tough on Dhawan, who has an excellent record, but it's something India have done before.
Our gamble on Pant, whose ability and form is undeniable, is made easier by an edge on win rate at 8.07/1.
Rohit has been boosted to 4.03/1 with Sportsbook but it's bang on win rate. Dhawan is 4.57/2 but should be bigger while there is an edge on Kohli, too. As we said, it's highly competitive. Bet the markets here.
Top India bat wins/matches
Rohit 8/31 11/4
WITH THE BALL
Top India bowler wins/matches
Chahal 5 3t/23
Thakur 2 t/14
Three of the best
For another spanner in the works, check out these career win rates for India's players in the top match runscorer market where you can get some big numbers in your favour.
Kohli, Rohit and Dhawan are in the top echelon for these hit rates across all teams since ODI records began. They are outstanding players in that regard.
And it's Kohli and Dhawan who offer up the biggest edge. Both men go off at 8.07/1 with Sportsbook. Rohit is a little skinny at 5.59/2.
For England, we think Sportsbook have the wrong favourite for the reasons above. Buttler is 5.04/1. Not surprisingly Bairstow's price stands out at 10.09/1.
Top match bat career win rate/Sportsbook implied probability