England v India Fifth Test Tips: Back tourists to hit back and square the series

• Bowling first may be key at The Oval

• Wicket is not the traditional runfest of old

• India value to level the series at 2-2

• In-play strategy revealed

• Betfair Predicts is your essential guide to England v India this summer

Betfair are giving punters an England v India fifth Test superboost that could provide a fitting finale to a brilliant series. Joe Root is the man of the moment, after his brilliant innings at Old Trafford put him second in the list of all-time Test match top run-scorers.

He's hit 36 boundaries in the series so far and you can back him at 11/102.11 - boosted from 8/131.61 - to hit four of more in England's first innings.

England v India
Thursday 31 July, 11.00
TV: Live on Sky Sports

England v India fifth Test team news

England were there to be taken on before they announced their XI. Now they've done so they absolutely must be bet against. Captain Ben Stokes missing out is bad enough but the thinking to try to cope without him is bizarre.

Brining in Jamie Overton as a 'like for like' would have been fine. But then shoehorning Jacob Bethell at the expense of Liam Dawson? Crackers. Or whichever way round you want to put it. Dawson kept down an end superbly at Old Trafford and to be dropped just once Test after recll is disgraceful. presumably bethell will be asked to bowl tight.

Jofra Archer and Brydon carse are out. Gus Atkinson and Josh Tongue come back in. That's fine but the lack of established spin control is an issue.

England XI: Crawley, Duckett, Pope, Root, Brook, Bethell, Smith, J Overton, Woakes, Atkinson, Tongue

India have confirmed that Jasprit Bumrah will not play. That is no surprise. He was struggling to get up the steps at Old Trafford and he risks a career-ending injury if a stress fracture returns. 

Bumrah's spot will go to Akash Deep, who has recovered from a groin problem. He has looked dangerous in the warm-up apparently, seaming and swinging the ball appreciably. This chimes with his performances in the series so far, notably at Edgbaston when he was lethal.

There could also be a game for left-armer Arshdeep Singh with Prasidh Krishna and Anshul Kamboj, who played at Manchester, unimpressive. The big question is whether India can find room for wristspinner Kulkdeep Yadav? It will depend on whether they want that batting protection afforded by Shardul Thakur, who has two fifites on this ground. 

Rishabh Pant is, of course, out of the game. His replacement, Dhruv Jurel, is probably a better keeper and is far from a mug with the bat. He has frustated England before and he could well produce an impressive, match-defining knock.

Possible India XI: Rahul, Jaiswal, Sai, Gill, Jadeja, Jurel, Sundar, Thakur/Kuldeep, Arsdeep, Siraj, Akash 

Get live fifth Test prediction on Betfair Predicts

England v India fifth Test pitch report

This is our annual reminder that The Oval is not the batting paradise that we've been led to believe. The late summer runfest in south London is one of those rose-tinted myths. At least in first-innings. It could well be one for the seamers and swingers.

The last five first match-innings read: 325-283-469-118-191. That 469 was by Australia in the WTC Final in 2023 against India, who had taken a wrecking ball to the top order before a Travis Head-inspired rescue act. Further back there have only been three scores of more than 350 in the last ten Tests.

That is instructive as oddsmakers expect the first-innings runs line for both teams to bust that mark. Chuck in the fact that the first-innings average runs per wicket is 27 and we have the chance to short. There is also the possibility of a heavy, muggy first morning although no signfiicant rain is expected for this Test.  England run's line should be 20 higher than India's.

It could get better to bat on. The second-, third- and fourth-innings average runs per wicket read: 26, 30 and 34. 

England v India fifth Test match prediction

Both England and India, tired and niggly, have probably had enough of each other. In a hard-fought, exhausting series the teams and coaching staff are ready to get at each other's throats one last time.

Stokes and Harry Brook behaved poorly at the end of the Manchester Test. The draw would have felt like a defeat as they failed to wrap the series. The missed opportunity to potentially take their foot off the gas was what really riled them and that could be telling.

India coach Gautam Gambhir has since had an unseemly spat with The Oval groundstaff and although Gambhir is the sort who could cause a ruckus in a broom cupboard with just himself and a mirror, it shows that India are not done yet. Indeed, Bumrah and the injury to Pant aside, they might finally pick a team which makes sense.

In terms of ability and what they have produced in the series, India don't deserve to lose and a draw would be a much fairer reflection. But they may have to bowl first and make use of potentially helpful conditions to get it. Both attacks have looked short of inspiration when the ball has gone soft and those runs per wicket averages indicate that doing damage up front is where the game will be won and lost.

England, of course, could look like worldbeaters themselves if the toss goes their way. The upshot, though, is that India's superior price of 3.8014/5 in a first-innings bowling shootout makes much more sense than the 2.3411/8.

England v India fifth Test in-play strategy

Our in-play thoughts centre on those runs per wicket averages per innings. In short, we're expecting bowlers to be to the fore in the first two and then batters to have the chance to hit back. High runs lines, then, should consistently be opposed in the first dig while we would also be ready to go unders again with the arrival of a new ball, if it gets that far in the first at least.

Ordinarily we would be keen to go overs on partnership runs afer a two-wicket flurry. In a series when bowlers generally haven't taken wickets in clusters, that could change.  It would not be a surprise if either of these teams were rolled in first or second. Keep the powder dry perhaps for partnerships late on when batting has got easier.  

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