England on the brink
Criticism of England during their sequence of one win in their previous 17 Tests is entirely justified. But praise is due after showing a rare combination of guts and gumption.
England ended day three as 1.282/7 favourites. They had no right to be even in the game at this point. With Daryl Mitchell and Tom Blundell poised to bat them out of the game, England conjured something dramatic with a 'team hat-trick'.
In the space of three balls they turned the game on its head. New Zealand would have been bitterly disappointed to muster a lead of only 277. Their last six wickets contributed just 34.
Yet there is still heat in the market. England's price has contracted sharply but a wicket first thing on day four and New Zealand, who are 4.507/2, are likely to return to make it a choice affair or favourite status if it's the incomparable Joe Root. Bet the match odds here.
The reason for that, despite the 61 runs needed, is Matt Potts. Potts bats at No 10 for Durham, his county, and the Kiwis will expect one to bring two.
So a simple trade can be in the offing. Indeed, it can be in play throughout the fourth morning. Favouritism could flip with a ten-run chunk or a wicket.
We must also make you aware of the possibility of a tie. It's currently 110.0109/1 to back. Remember, that outcome is not included in the match odds market so positions need to be managed accordingly. The tie market is here.
Regardless of the result of game one, there could be changes for both teams for the second Test, which starts on Friday at Trent Bridge.
New Zealand look certain to have to replace Colin de Grandhomme. Without De Grandhomme's first-innings runs, New Zealand would have been beaten by now so one would hope that not too much fuss will be made about the no-ball which castled Stokes.
The Kiwis are likely to find a place for Henry Nicholls once he is fit so the all-rounder role will go to Daryl Mitchell. Mitchel's bowling is powederpuff in comparison to De Grandhomme, which is saying something.
However, picking a fourth specialist pacer seems unlikely because when a team has three such potent operators as Trent Boult, Tim Southee and Kyle Jamieson, there aren't just the overs to go round. Particularly in Nottingham.
It is harsh on Neil Wagner and Matt Henry but the Kiwis will surely prefer a longer batting line-up.
England have a decision to make about Zak Crawley and Olli Pope while another muddled performance from Alex Lees will lead to questions.
Crawley has still not ironed out his technical failing when driving. Pope, it has to be said, has been thrown to the wolves batting at No 3. Joe Root needs to step and give the Surrey youngster time to bed in from the middle order.