How do India win it?
India have outplayed England for three-and-a-half days at Edgbaston. And yet they ended day four a 6.205/1 shot.
Go figure. That is Bazball or Bairstowball. England have such supreme confidence at the moment that for sessions after session, day after day they can take the vicious blows on the chin, get knocked down and then come out swinging with venom and consistently in the last hurrah.
With 119 required and with seven wickets in hand, England are 1.192/11 to pull off another chase which, by historic standards, was firmly classed in the 'improbable' category. The target of 378, if achieved, will be England's record fourth-innings chase. And comes off the back of three-successive 'improbables' against New Zealand.
What is happening here? Well, the first thing to be said if that the pitches at Lord's, Headingley and Trent Bridge were flat and did not deteriorate. New Zealand (in the last two tests) and now India, did not pick a specialist, high-class spinner to make use of footmarks or slight wear and tear. Edgbaston has few demons. There are no puffs of dust or uneven bounce.
But England's attitude cannot be ignored. Their arrogant, bordering on reckless, aggression will be pinned on coach Brendon McCullum. But his New Zealand Test side never played like this. It appears it is the work of Ben Stokes who has been so intent on drawing a line in the sand he has risked becoming a caricature.
Such is the faith in the method that players like Zak Crawley and Alex Lees, who should feel a weight of pressure on their shoulders because of their lightness of runs, looked a million bucks. By stereotype, trope and the history book they really should have scratched and scurried about the crease.
The genius of the ploy is best summed up the overs tally. Unless India hit back, England will have this game almost in their pocket before India can consider the second new ball. England rattled along at an insane 4.54 an over.
Assistance came in the form of India's bowlers, who looked ragged. Too many freebies on the legs characterised an innings which, at one stage, they looked in command. Three wickets for two runs saw their odds plummet to 1.402/5. They need something similar.
The good news for India is that they have a squeak. A decent night's rest should re-energise body and mind. And they could be greeted by perfect bowling conditions on day five. The forecast for the morning session suggests plays will take place under leaden skies.
Both Jonny Bairstow and Joe Root, whether they like it or not, must start again from scratch. Their eyes will need to retrain and refocus on the ball again. It is a new innings. Jeopardy remains in that long tail from England. Matt Potts at No 8 really should make Stokes more circumspect.
In the old days, a bet on India would make sense. Now it seems like hopeless gamble. That is the mark of what this England team is doing. Forget what you think you know. Bet the match odds here.