Cricket Betting Tips: In-play angles after day four of England v New Zealand

England a bit of value

If you could have picked a situation to test whether England's promise to aggressive, attacking cricket would hold game two at Trent Bridge is close to being it.

With a 1-0 lead secure, England do not need to win the game. And yet they committed to winning back time in the match to try to double their advantage.

On the fourth morning they would have been entirely justified in batting sensibly and solidly to put New Zealand out of the contest entirely. Previously there had been a spell where they rocketed along at close to six an over.

They put their foot on the accelerator once more. For the old-fashioned sorts it could have been considered reckless or dangerous. They were taking risks in contradiction of the context of the series.

It may be that England don't quite have the time to get the win. The Trent Bridge surface may put to that. It still looks a belter and is the only caveat to the home team's strut. To walk the walk and talk the talk on this wicket is one thing, to do it on something trickier is another.

So what do England need to do on day five? Well, beyond the basic 'take three wickets and quickly' it is instructive to know that a wicket falls at an average of just shy of every eight overs at Trent Bridge in the fourth innings in the last five years. England have it in their locker to take wickets in clusters. It was what won them the match at Lord's.

If the average holds, though, England are likely to be looking at a target of 306 (at New Zealand's run rate) in about 65 overs.

This will severely test England's assertion that they are prepared to go after anything. Actual targets are immaterial. It's all about run rate - on our numbers England are looking at about 4.6 an over. England may well fancy themselves at five an over against a Kiwi attack lacking a spinner who can tie down an end and a depleted pace attack with Kyle Jamieson under the scanner for a back issue.

It should not be forgotten that New Zealand, if in danger, are quite within their rights to spread the field and bowl wide of off, or to a heavy leg field.

England are 3.309/4, New Zealand are 5.309/2 and the draw is 1.9520/21. Bet the match odds here.

The hosts are a bit of sneaky value because of that potential for running through the last three Kiwi wickets. Daryll Mitchell aside, Matt Henry, Trent Boult and Jamieson, clearly struggling with his back considering he's not appeared with the bat yet, are not roadblocks to a thrilling finish. All three results are possible, though.

Good news long-term

Regardless of the outcome, England's approach should be welcome to punters. This is unlikely to be a staid and safety-first England.

Long-term, it could be good news for the draw layers. And perhaps gone are the days of an England captain batting on and on ad nauseum when a fast declaration is required.

The latter is a bugbear of the bettor. And, to be fair, it's not just England. All over the world Test captain have a habit of batting on too long, fearful that they don't have enough runs to play with. In fact, it's overs and time they need.

Under Stokes, England could well be a side prepared to declare in line with the percentages. It would be a most welcome positive of the Stokes era.