Bangladesh v England
Sunday 12 March, 09:00
TV: Live on Sky Sports
Team news
Bangladesh won for only the sixth time in 20. Downing the world champions was a significant shock and greater than odds of 3.02/1 suggested. They should have no cause to make a change to their XI as a result.
That means there is no place for Tamim Iqbal, although Liton Das' poor run against England in the ODI series continued into the shortest format.
A brilliant all-round bowling effort had restricted England to 156. Najmul Shanto's fierce hitting finished it off.
Probable XI: Das, Talukdar, Shanto, Hridoy, Shakib, Afif, Shamim, Taskin, Nasum, Hasan, Mustafizur
England will be keen to rotate their fast-bowling group for fitness reasons. You can throw in form, too, perhaps. Mark Wood and Jofra Archer both took significant tap.
Reece Topley could come in with Rehan Ahmed's spin and batting also suddenly attractive given they are a batter light.
Possible XI: Salt, Buttler, Malan, Duckett, Moeen, S Curran, Ahmed, Woakes, Jordan, Rashid, Wood, Topley
Pitch report
The teams return to Mirpur where the surfaces were pretty sluggish in the ODI series. In the BPL in January and February there were 25 full 20-over contests played and 14 first digs produced scores of 160 or more. Bangladesh might be value to bust that on the runs lines. There was a toss bias, too, with 15 won by the chaser.
How to play
Bangladesh are 2.95 and England 1.51/2. It is tempting to reckon that England were ambushed by a dodgy surface in Chattogram. But that might be a lazy guess.
Although Bangladesh opened with a spinner and squeezed expertly, the hosts had absolutely no trouble rattling off the target. They romped home and were playing on a different pitch.
Given they were so aggressive with the bat means old form may have to go out of the window. A new coach has brought fresh ideas and they're playing with more freedom. With the toss bias in their favour they are extremely dangerous.
Tops value
There's value all over the shop on the tops market. First up we go in again on Afif Hossein at 11/1 for top bangla bat. We're garetful that he's drifted after batting a spot lower than we'd like but we'll adjust our stakes, too.
For England, Moeen Ali has a win rate out of whack with the 17/2 for top England bat. We note Sam Curran at 13s and Rehan Ahmed at 90s. It's possible either could be used as an aggressor up the order.
With the ball, we're more than happy to go in on Mark Wood against at 4/1. He has returned in six of the last nine.