Bangladesh v England
Thursday 9 March, 09:00
TV: Live on Sky Sports
Bangladesh are boosted by their win in the final ODI, but there are some changes to their squad. Experienced batters Tamim Iqbal, Mushfiqur Rahman and Mahmudullah are not involved in this format.
Shakib-al-Hasan is the skipper and they have been reliant on Liton Das, who has looked in poor touch, for runs. Veteran Rony Talukdar could come in at No 3.
Possible XI: Shanto, Das, Talukdar, Shakib, Afif, Nurul, M Hasan Miraz, Shamim, Hossain, Hasan Mahmud, Taskin, Mustafizur
England have made changes, too. Jason Roy is out and Ben Duckett is in. Jos Buttler should return to the opening berth. Chris Jordan also comes back.
They are once again likely to rotate the fast bowlers. Mark Wood, Jofra Archer and Reece Topley are unlikely to appear in the same XI. Rehan Ahmed may play as an extra spin option.
Possible XI: Buttler, Salt, Malan, Duckett, Moeen, S Curran, Woakes, Jordan/Ahmed, Rashid, Wood, Topley
There is a fifty-fifty split in the toss under lights at Chattogram. But we could get a wicket which was similar to the ODI series with spinners to the fore and runscoring tricky on slow surfaces.
In BPL matches in January there were only four scores of 160 or more in 12 matches. Shorting Bangladesh runs on the par line is a decent option. They've made more than 160 four times in the last 11. If their par line was at 157.5, they would have been winners for losers six times.
How to play
Bangladesh are 3.052/1 with England, the world champions, 1.4740/85. Before you get excited by Bangladesh's price remember this: they're dreadful in this format.
The hosts have won five of their last 19, two and one successes came against the UAE and Netherlands respectively. It's difficult therefore to make a case even for a trade on Bangladesh.
There is plenty of value based on players' win rates on the top batter and bowler markets. First up is Afif Hossein who has five wins in 19. He is 6/1. For England, Moeen has four wins in 22 so is a solid win-rate bet at 8/1.
We do note that Sam Curran could be promoted up the order here so 11/1 has appeal on that basis. Buttler has been boosted to 23/10.
We can't wait for England to unleash Mark Wood. He has five returns in his last eight matches and the 9/2 is generous.