Bangladesh v England
Wednesday 1 March, 08:30
TV: Live on Sky Sports
Bangladesh are at full-strength for this one. Tamim Iqbal is a notable return and he could form a potent opening partnership with Liton Das.
Shakib-al-Hasan is in the squad and could bat at No 3. The hosts will hope he is not in disruptive mood, though. Mehidy Hasan Miraz, one of the finest all-rounders in the world, balances the XI.
Possible XI: Tamim, Liton Das, Shakib, Mahmudullah, Mushfiqur, Afif, M Hasan Miraz, Taskin, Ebadot, Mustafizur
England are not at full-strength because of the Test series with New Zealand. Ben Duckett and Harry Brook would make this XI.
Doubts remain about Jason Roy's longevity and he could be paired with Will Jacks in the opening berth. Phil Salt is seemingly out of favour. Jofra Archer, Mark Wood, Saqib Mahmood and Reece Topley could be rotated.
Rehan Ahmed could be an exciting pick if England feel the need to play two specialist spinners on a turning track.
Possible XI: Roy, Jacks, Malan, Vince, Buttler, Moeen, S Curran, Ahmed, Rashid, Archer, Topley
The Mirpur could be a traditionally slow and low Asian sub-continent surface. In the last 10 there have been four scores in first-innings under 200 and only three over 270.
We would expect England's par line to be in that latter region. Bangladesh may be shorted at 249.5.
How to play
England are in dreadful form in ODI. They have lost seven of their last 11 and three of their last four series (with a draw being the odd one out). Bangladesh beat a strong India team 2-1 in December.
In short, this is a very touch examination for England and we recoil at odds of 1.491/2. Betting Bangladesh at 3.002/1 is a must. There is a slight all-time swing of 3% for the side batting first udner lights.
Man for man ordinarily one would reckon England were stronger. But that's not necessarily the case. We have some doubts about Roy, Jacks is unproven while Dawid Malan has never mastered these surfaces. Bangladesh have a more than solid top five.
Liton Das and Mahmudullah stand out for top Bang bat. Das has a win rate of 28.5% in the last two eyars and is 4/1. Mahmudullah wins at 20.8% and is 6/1. Given that the biggest edge is on the latter we will go for mahmudullah but feel free to dutch the duo.
For England Jos Buttler has the best return but 10/3 isn't value on win rate. Instead, Sam Curran's two wins in 12 will make the 11/1 popular.
Mehidy is skinny at 4/6 for top bowler. He's their best bowler and has seven returns in 23 but it's prohibitively short. But the 18s for man of the match seems way out of line given favourite status.