Australia v South Africa Third Test Tips: Are understrength Aussies vulnerable?

• Showers forecast at SGC

• South AFrica batting hopeless

• Smnith and Bavuma men to follow

Australia v South Africa
Tuesday 3 January, 23:30
TV: Live on BT Sports

Team news

It is telling that Australia's greatest challenge in this series has come from the treatment table. Josh Hazlewood had been sidelined and Chris Green, who balances the XI, and Mitchell Starc have been ruled out.

As a result there have been two call-ups to cover all bases. Spin all-rounder Ashton Agar and batter Matt Renshaw have been added to the squad.

With the SCG surface expected to turn, Agar will probably play and add batting depth. If Australia want an extra batter it would be Matt Harris instead of Renshaw as he has been a consistent squad member.

Hazlewood probably slots in for Starc. Lance Morris, a tyro, is putting his hand up but it would be harsh on the former.

Probable XI: Warner, Khawaja, Labuschagne, Smith, Head, Carey, A Agar, Cummins, Lyon, Boland, Hazlewood

South Africa are without Theunis be Bruyn, who has departed to be present for the birth of his child. That frees up a middle-order spot with Heinrich Klaasen and Rassie van der Dussen in the frame.

Gvien that Van der Dussen was axed for De Bruyn, it would make sense that Klaasen got a go. South Africa are desperate to find any batter that can stick. Only Klye Verreynne and Temba Bavuma have managed it so far.

There should be changes with the ball, too. Keshav Maharaj and Lungi Ngidi have been disappointing and spinner Simon Harmer seems certain to play. Whether Gerald Cotzee and Lizaad Williams, pace bowlers both, get a go is another option.

Possible XI: Elgar, Erwee, Bavuma, Zondo, Verreynne, Klaasen, Jansen, Rabada, Harmer, Williams, Nortje

Pitch report

Australia routinely duff-up bowling attacks in the first dig at the SCG. This is their record: 538 v Pakistan in 2017, 649 v England in 2018, India 622 in 19, 454 v New Zealand in 2020, 338 v India in 2021 and 416 against England in 2022. During that sequence only one vising team has made more than 350.

It is likely to be one surface for the Aussies and one for South Africa, then. The latter have not made more than 204 in their last eight Test innings. Going under their par line in the first dig make sense if that market is out of line with the data. You should be able to go long of Australia's from 360-370.

How to play

Australia are 1.374/11, South Africa 9.4017/2 and the draw is 5.409/2. It is almost impossible to make a case for a visiting team which doesn't have a history of scoring enough runs.

The draw price is of note, though. That's because there are forecast showers on four of the five days. If Australia bat first and go well on the first day, which has clear skies, there might be a chance to lay at around the 4.003/1 mark if overs are lost.

Tops value

One reason why Australia shouldn't fret too much about the loss of Green is the form of their top five. For example, average in the first dig at the SCG in the last five years for the following: Khawaja (111), Labuschagne (93), Smith (86).

It's why we again advise betting the to score a ton in first innings market instead of top first-innings Aussie bat. The trio on the former market are 7/1, 6/1 and 6/1 respectively. Smith also stands out at 5/4 for a 50 with a 100% record under the study period.

We nailed a nice winner on Marco Jansen at 22s in the previous Test for top SA bat. We also had a nibble on Bavuma and given that he's been upped to 9/2 we're not shy of playing given his guts.