Australia v India Third ODI Tips: Batters could dominate at SCG

• Australia should rest Starc & hazlewood

• India may consider Kuldeep
• SCG favours side batting first

• Runs plays make sense

Australia v India
Saturday 25 October, 04.30
TV: Live on TNT

Australia v India Third ODI team news

Australia have the option to rest key players thanks to an unassailable 2-0 lead. It would be a major surprise if both Mitchell Starc and Josh Hazlewood were risked for a dead rubber given the forthcoming Ashes.

That should mean spots for Jack Edwards and Nathan Ellis. Edwards, an all-rounder, had a strong performance against Australia A. Bash followers will recall his performance for the Sixers.  Josh Inglis has rejoined the squad after a calf strain but he is not expected to play. 

Alex Carey came straight in for the unfortunate Josh Philippe. Cooper Connolly made a breakthrough innings in game two. Matt Renshaw continues to audition for an Ashes squad spot. 

Possible Australia XI: Head, Marsh, Short, Renshaw,  Carey, Connolly, Owen, Edwards, Bartlett, Ellis, Zampa

India picked the same XI for game two and got the same outcome.  They may need to consider a USP and the answer may have something to do with the spin of Kuldeep Yadav. They've got to find a way to test Australia in a different way.

Nitish Kumar Reddy is having a poor series and could be under threat. He either balances the XI by becoming the third pacer or they bat Kuldeep at No 8. Prasidh Krishna is an option for either Harshit Rana or Mohammed Siraj. Virat Kohli recorded two consecutive ducks for the first time and he has to step up. 

Possible India XI: Rohit, Kohli, Gill, Shreyas, Rahul, Axar, Sundar,  Kuldeep, Arshdeep, Siraj, Prasidh

Australia v India Third ODI pitch report

The average first-innings score at the SCG in the last ten is 282. That translates to an 80% win rate for the side batting first. When day-nights are filtered, that last figure jumps to 90% (last ten). The runs per over in day-nights is 5.99.

These two sides were responsible for a run glut when they met in back-to-back games in 2020. Australia won with first-innings scores of 374 and 389. India replied twice with more than 300. 

The weather forecast is fair so we're angling for runs bets. Total runs bets overs/unders at 10/111.91 for Australia and India are available with Sportsbook for Australia at 274.5 and 264.5. Both teams to score 300 comes in at 10/34.33. 

Australia v India Third ODI match prediction

India have never been whitewashed by Australia in ODI so their motivation should be clear. Throughout the series there have been concerns that they have needed game time to get up to speed but improvement has been disappointing across the two.

They were twice in a decent position batting first at Adelaide. From 135 for two they had their sights set on a monster total. And even at 213 for five in the 42nd they had aspirations of 300. Their total of 264 was always going to be a struggle.

Defending they had a brief glimpse of success when Matthew Short was snared to make it 187 for five. But Connolly and Mitch Owen took the game away from India. 

It's not great news that having been keen on an India comeback for game two, they have been cut in odds from 2.407/5. The best available is now 2.305/4 with Australia 1.758/11. To play the tourists again we will have to insist on at least pre-toss Adelaide prices. If the 2.305/4 holds with that toss bias in play, India are worth the risk batting first. 

Australia v India Third ODI player bets

Kohli will be popular for top India bat but playing is hard to justify. His win rate has now dipped below the implied probability that the 16/54.20 offers. It might be a good idea if skip Shubman Gill also stuck his hand up. But the 11/43.75 isn't hugely appealing. For Australia, Travis Head is the win zone but form is patchy. The favourite tag at 13/53.60 puts one off slightly.  

Now read Ed's Ultimate Guide to The Ashes