Australia v England 1st ODI Tips: Are England up for it?

• Adelaide surface could be flat

• Warner value at 7/2

• Both sides to score 250

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Australia v England
Thusday 16 November, 03.20
TV: Live on BT Sports

Team news

Australia begin the build-up to next year's World Cup with a new skipper. Pat Cummins has taken over from the retired Aaron Finch. But there's minimal new thinking in a familiar squad.

The most innovative the Aussies may get is Travis Head returning to the opening berth. Sean Abbott may foce out one from Josh Hazlewood or Mitchell Starc.

The batting order outside the top two looks fluid with Glenn Maxwell out with a broken leg. Steve Smith, Mitchell Marsh, Alex Carey, Cameron Green and Marcus Stoinis could be moved around to suit the game situation.

Probable XI: Warner, Head, M Marsh, Smith, Green, Stoinis, Carey, Cummins, Starc/Abbott, Hazlewood, Zampa

Moeen Ali has called this three-match series 'horrible' coming so quickly after the T20 World Cup triumph. Imagine how he'd feel if England had lost to Pakistan.

It's not great that there is a sense that England can't be bothered. They may be shrewd to leave out as many T20 players as possible to get the energy levels up.

The likes of Jason Roy, James Vince, David Willey and Liam Dawson could start. A fit-again Olly Stone may be pace=paired with Luke Wood.

Possible XI: Roy, Salt, Vince, Malan, Buttler, Moeen, S Curran, Willey, Dawson, Wood, Stone

Pitch report

There hasn't been an ODI at Adelaide since 2019. Australia failed to defend 298 against India. It should be a decent batting wicket again. And this game - unlike the World Cup semi-final - will probably get a brand new surface.

Australia are likely to relish an understrength England attack and if par is set in the high 270s it would be a buy. Sportsbook's 5/4 that both teams score 250 looks cheap for this ground's reputation for being flat.

Although it doesn't stand up to scrutiny historical scorecards it does stack up in terms of team efficiency. Australia and England average 5.6 and 6.4 rpo with the bat in the last two years and 5 and 5.6 with the ball respectively. The weather forecast is good.

How to play

One suspects the toss will be important. Both are chasing teams. England have won seven of their last ten batting second and Australia six from nine.

With runs expected, then, it may be shrewd to wait until the break. We could be betting Australia at odds against in a chase England approaching 3.002/1.

Pre-toss Australia are 1.674/6 favourites based on available personnel and a 2-1 win in England in 2020. England are 2.466/4.

Tops value

Warner is value on win rate (four in the last 12) at a boosted 7/2 with Sportsbook for top Australia bat. Head is the same price and has a fifty in his last knock domestically. These two opened the batting on this ground in 2017 against Pakistan and put on 284. The 8/1 and 12/1 about Warner and Head winning man of the match are of interest.

For England Jos Buttler is 7/2 for top bat - a dreadful price given he won't open.