Abu Dhabi T10 Day Seven Tips: Don't be afraid of big runs

Chris Gayle
Gayle is blasting for Team Abu Dhabi

Ed Hawkins is hoping to play the extremes on the innings runs market in the Abu Dhabi T10 on Wednesday...

"If the flip goes their way, they are worthy of a trade because of the toss bias. But, again, we expect them to be bigger at the break"

Trade Pune bat 2nd from 4.003/1 to 2.757/4

Abu Dhabi T10 Match Day Seven
TV: live on Sky Sports

Bangla Tigers v Qalandars, 12:00

Ooof. This is a mismatch. Bangla are 3.2011/5 and Qalandars, who have a 100% record, are 1.392/5. Given the toss bias we could make a case for Bangla. But there is also a heavy bias for the favourites now. So we could be damned if we do and damned if we don't. A trade? Well, Bangla could well be a bigger price at the break in a chase than they are pre-toss.

Maratha Arabians v Team Abu Dhabi, 14:15

Another mismatch. The Arabians are 3.45 with Team Abu Dhabi 1.351/3. But we have been here before with the Arabians, notably in the first match of the tournament when they shocked Northern Warriors.

One thing we need to be clear about the Arabians is that their bowling is awful. They have an average economy rate of almost 14, which is comfortably the worst in the competition. So if they bowl first, and make use of that toss bias which has failed to reward only four teams out of 18 so far, they are another team who could be bigger at the break than before a ball was bowled.

If that is the case then a trade is still an option. But don't let it run for long. Only look to pinch a position from around the 4.03/1 mark if their bowlers maintain wayward form.

The shrewd move may be just to bet on Team Abu Dhabi going ballistic. But we're yet to see that as the likes of Chris Gayle and Paul Stirling have not found their range. We also await to see if Alex Hales is available. Taking reasonable numbers on innings runs busting 150 or 160 could be the way to go.

Pune Devils v Northern Warriors, 16:30

This one pitches the second-worst bowling attack against the second-best batting attack. Pune Devils bowlers are swallowing hard before they go up against the big bats of the Warriors. Keep fingers crossed, then, that the toss goes our way. If Warriors bat first we will look to play the first-innings runs markets.

On the average economy rates bowling and batting for these two respectively, Pune should concede/Warriors should score at least 140. We favour playing the extremes, however, because of the greater numbers available so more than 160 and more than 170 are the way to go.

An alternative is to bet for big runs again at the death of that Warriors innings. Nic Pooran has been in such destructive form that we could well see 50 runs off the final three or 40 of the final two. Just as it pays to go high in the Indian Premier League at the death on innings runs, it's a smart ploy here too. Small stakes can offer big returns.

What if Pune bat first? Well, there's not much doing. In their last outing on Tuesday they managed only 57 against Delhi Bulls. They failed to defend in the previous three but they did manage a win in their first game of the tournament, chasing to beat Deccan.

If the flip goes their way, they are worthy of a trade because of the toss bias. But, again, we expect them to be bigger at the break. They are better batting unit on paper than Arabians, though, so we are prepared to leave it a little longer before manoeuvring the money. They might be capable of squeezing their odds into 2.757/4.

Tournament stats

Average score bating first 113
Matches won batting first 4/18
Highest chase 129
Teams score 110 or more 10/18
Won by favourites 15/18

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