Ed Hawkins is keeping the chaser on side but will take a risk on an outsider as the T10 thrash continues on Thursday...
"The team chasing is dominating. The favourite is dominating. In isolation only one of those makes sense"
Abu Dhabi T10 Match Day Eight
TV: live on Sky Sports
The Arabians lived up to their record as having the most expensive bowling attack in the tournament on Wednesday when their target of 97 was chased inside six overs against Team Abu Dhabi. If Deccan get the opportunity to bat first, we will be playing high overs on the innings runs. Small stakes can offer big returns at 140 and 150.
Punters love a trend. And the Abu Dhabi T20 is full of them. But it is far from easy to be making money on this competition, least of all because the trend makes little sense.
The team chasing is dominating. The favourite is dominating. In isolation only one of those makes sense. But both? With the team batting first beaten as soon as the flip is done - only five winners out of 21 - there should have been a healthy number of upsets. But not so. On pre-toss prices, 18 out of 21 favourites have obliged.
We have also seen a trend since about day five for the favourites to be prohibitively short at around the 1.402/5 mark as an average. There's not much fun in that. When you're seeing those sort of numbers with that toss bias it is impossible not to reckon an outsider at upwards of 2.608/5 is a wager. But you'd have done your dough.
This game is an exception. Qalandars, boasting Tom Banton and Ben Dunk, are 1.834/5 and Delhi 1.9310/11. The confusion stems from the market not knowing who will bat first. Both outfits are strong. Qalandars have a 100% record and Delhi four wins from five.
The Qalandars have the edge because of their bowling unit. They are more economical than Delhi. So if the flip goes their way and that 1.834/5 holds, they don't represent a bad wager. We don't see them drifting much. Delhi, however, might. Their batting is powerful and they could be worth trading from 2.206/5 to 1.501/2 in a chase.
Abu Dhabi are 1.738/11 favourites with Bangla 2.305/4. Now this is a match we could get behind. We wait for the toss mind. Bangla could well come into even money with the chase on their side so it's a wager we're happy with.
We're not entirely convinced about Abu Dhabi. They have the air of the showponies of the tournament - most team who pick Chris Gayle in the franchise world do. It's a bet which is likely to give you palpitations from ball one, though. Bangla are likely to go round the park so if you want to wait until the break you can do so. It's all about what timing suits you.
Gayle, to be fair, was in sensational form against the Arabians. But it was only the Arabians. The formidable George Garton is likely to prove a tougher opponent. Johnson Charles and Andre Fletcher are potentially explosive in reply.
Average score bating first 111
Matches won batting first 5/21
Highest chase 129
Teams score 110 or more 10/21
Won by favourites 18/21
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