Caribbean Premier League Winner Tips: Guyana badly underrated

• Trinbago the favourites

• Providence to host knockouts

• Guyana the holders and too big at 4/1

• Read the unmissable team guide HERE

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Guyana the wrong price

When trying to find a winner when betting on any sport, often no stone is left unturned in the pursuit of value. Databases, algorithms, strategies and systems often do a hell of a lot of good. Sometimes, though, it can be just about saying: that price is wrong.

And that is the situation for the Caribbean Premier League outright. Guyana Amazon Warriors, last year's winners, are fourth favourites at 4/15.00 with Betfair Sportsbook and on the Betfair Exchange. They should be considerably shorter.

Trinbago Knight Riders are, of course, the favourites at 12/53.40 with Sportsbook. That is to be expected. Trinbago are always the favourites by dint of boasting T20 legends in the form of Sunil Narine, Kieron Pollard and Andre Russell plus the combustible Nic Pooran.

Even though we don't necessarily agree with that favourite status we don't need to get uppity about it. Guyana would be a perfectly acceptable bet at second-jolly status. But that goes to Barbados Royals at 10/34.33. And then St Lucia Kings are rated more likely winners at 7/24.50.

And this is where we get excited. Guyana will benefit, just as they did last year, from the play-offs being held at their home ground. It is a tremendous advantage for a team which has been designed to win matches on potentially slow, low surfaces with spinners to the fore.

They have also retained all their star performers from last season. Shai Hope and Saim Ayub, Nos 1 and 2 in the overall run lists, go again. Dewald Pretorius and Imran Tahir, positioned the same on the wicket-taker lists, go again. Gudakesh Motie, a key tweaker, could be expected to improve on joint-fourth. Shimron Hetmyer, although disappointing in most other franchise leagues, is an asset here.

Batting power and balance key

It is a remarkably strong squad and one of probably only two teams which could argue they have excellent balance. Trinbago might say the same. As discussed in our team-by-team guide, these two are the sides to beat. Trinbago could well take the win but it is almost impossible to say that they are wrongly priced.

Guyana and Trinbago contested the final last term and it won't be a surprise if they do so again. As discussed for the T20 World Cup, batting power is crucial on these types of surfaces. It is often the point of difference with most bowling units capable of tying down teams. That is important because it further extends the gap between Guyana and the rest. No team scored runs quicker in 2023.

It also highlights why Royals are a poor wager. On helpful bowling services their economy rate in the league season was just under ten an over. Although they have tried to boost their ranks with Maheesh Theekshana and Naveen-ul-Haq, personnel may not always make the difference. What effective plans and preparation for on-field are being put in place? they sure as hell failed the stress test in 2023.

St Lucia are a team with strong batting power but the loss of Heinrich Klaasen on the eve of the tournament is a hammer blow even if Tim Seifert comes in. There are a couple of holes in the middle- to lower-order and they look likely candidates to be expensive in the field.

Top 5 two-year CPL top-bat return rates
King 41%
Ayub 38%
Du Plessis 38%
Fletcher 37%
Charles 28%

Top 5 two-year CPL top-bowler return rates
Pretorius 42%
Holder 33%
Amir 28%
Imad 26%
Wiese 20%
*Minimum 10 games

Antigua are the trade chance

For the exploding-head emoji denouement how on earth does one explain how St Kitts & Nevis Patriots, who finished rock-bottom, are rated only a point bigger than Guyana? Pats have had to rejig their squad already, losing Wanindu Hasaranga and Nuwan Thushara. It is baffling stuff. Answers on a postcard.

There's not much justification, either, for the new franchise, Antigua & Barbuda Falcons, being as big as 11/112.00. They are essentially Jamaica Tallawahs, who no longer exist, but with a new name and new venue.

Jamaica finished fourth last season and seven players of their players have signed for the new outfit. Five of them were involved in Jamaica's 2022 run to the title.

Although they are heavily reliant on Brandon King and Fakhar Zaman for runs, Sam Billings brings nous and workmanlike qualities. Imad Wasim, the Pakistan all-rounder, will need to produce with bat and ball while Mohammad Amir is reliable in the pace department.

They represent an obvious trade option. A play-off spot, or four group-stage wins and a decent net run rate, can get their price down by half. But it really should be Guyana's title to lose.

Read the CPL team guide with player win rates and possible XIs HERE