After landing a huge 35/1 top batsman winner on Sunday, Ed Hawkins returns to preview Tuesday's CPL semi-finals from Warner Park...
"They won both head-to-heads in the group stage chasing, characterised by shambolic Guyana displays. However, if they have to bat first Guyana could do some decent work in the field"
Trinbago Knight Riders v St Lucia Kings
Tuesday 14 September 15.00
TV: live on Betfair, BT Sport
Trinbago have won four of the last five and earned revenge on the Patriots to book second spot with a comfortable four-wicket success on Sunday.
It was a classic Trinbago performance. They kept things tight enough in the field, restricting Patriots to 147. Then they chased down with a late masterclass from Kieron Pollard.
Ravi Rampaul has come back into the XI after missing the previous game. But Sunil Narine was left out as Isuru Udana returned after injury. Narine may well have been rested so don't be surprised if he comes back.
Probable XI Simmons, Ramdin, Munro, D Bravo, Pollard, Seifert, Narine, Udana, Hosein, Seales, Rampaul
Du Plessis to return?
Kings had a disappointing end to the group section, losing three of their last four. And to some trash, too. The Royals stuffed them by eight wickets in their final outing. A hammering by the Tallawahs was a red alert.
Faf Du Plessis was rested with a groin niggle for defeat by Royals so we expect him to come back in. That means Samit Patel could be vulnerable. All-rounder David Wiese came in and was decent with the bat. We expect Rahkeem Cornwall to miss out.
Possible XI Fletcher, Deyal, Du Plessis, Chase, David, Wiese, Alleyne, Wahab, Joseph, Royal, Williams
Trinbago in charge
It was one win apiece for these teams in the head-to-head in the group stages. The side batting first defended 157 and 158 respectively.
At one stage Kings looked to be on a par with Trinbago in terms of ability and efficiency. And had the crystal ball shown prices of 2.285/4 Kings four games ago for this semi, we'd have been encouraged.
However, confidence has been lost. Kings may well have taken their foot off the gas with qualification rarely in doubt. But you can't just turn it off and on like a tap. Trinbago look fair at 1.728/11, fairer still to squeeze them batting first to under the late 150s.
Pollard gave us a nice winner at 6/1 against Patriots. He has been cut to 5/1 for top TKR bat. But ricks are in short supply. One price that stands out is the 5/1 about Mark Deyal topping for Kings. He could well return to the opening slot with Du Plessis also back.
St Kitts & Nevis Patriots v Guyana Amazon Warriors
Tuesday 13 September 19.30
TV: live on Betfair, BT Sport
Patriots lost their grip on top spot in a late collapse. They lost four of their last five and confidence must have taken a hit.
They at least managed a win over TKR in the odd one out in the chase. They are much happier going after a target rather than defending. Their hitters like to know what they've got to deal with and brawn trumps brain with this lot.
Possible XI E Lewis, D Thomas, Gayle, Da Silva, Rutherford, Bravo, Allen, Drakes, Shah, Jaggesar, Van Meekeren, Fawad
Guyana can't rely on spin
Guyana finished second behind TKR, being squeezed out on run rate from top spot. We're not getting carried away with their strong finish, however.
They managed two wins against a Jamaica side hopeless against spin and Patriots offer a much sterner test. There are also individual problems in their line-up, notably the horrific form of Shoaib Malik. Nic Pooran has picked up while Romario Shepherd was brilliant in their final win over Tallawahs.
Probable XI King, Hemraj, Hetmyer, Shoaib Malik, Pooran, Shepherd, O Smith, Bramble, Motie, Naveen, Tahir
Two flawed teams
It's disappointing that Patriots are as short as 1.784/5 here. We were hoping for a choice affair for two teams who both have flaws.
If Patriots get the chance to chase, and their value comes up perhaps in the powerplay, they may well be the bet. They won both head-to-heads in the group stage chasing, characterised by shambolic Guyana displays.
However, if they have to bat first Guyana could do some decent work in the field and shorting the runs line - possibly at 160.5 - could be the way to go.
Shepherd is into 13/1 after notching us a winner at 35s last time for top Guyana bat.
The value has gone. Pooran catches the eye at 6s.
For Patriots, Evin Lewis, the top tournament runscorer, should return to the XI. Sportsbook go 13/5. Chris Gayle has been boosted to 12/5. We like Fabian Allen's price at 17/2.
Ed Hawkins P-L
Based only on available prices. Does not include back-to-lay in-running advice or commission rate. Figures 2013-2016 on 1pt level stakes. Includes Hawk-Eye column p-l