Caribbean Premier League Day 14 Tips: Shepherd underrated for runs

Faf Du Plessis
Du Plessis is in form

Ed Hawkins has all the value for another triple-header on Sunday and early Monday at Warner Park in the CPL

"We're not saying he wins but he should be more like Odean Smith's 13/1, who was a place lower"

(0.25pts) Back Romario Shepherd top Guyana bat 36.035/1

Barbados Royals v St Lucia Kings
Sunday 12 September 15.00
TV: live on Betfair, BT Sport

Royals finished

The Royals' campaign is over. Defeat by Kings ended slim chances of qualification. They are also doomed to finish bottom.

As usual they were potent up front with the ball and in charge bowling first. Then they hopelessly lost their way. Shai Hope has come back into the line-up to bolster flak batting at the expense of Raymon Reifer.

Probable XI Mayers, Charles, Smit Patel, Hope, Philips, Azam, Holder, Young, Bishop, Lintott, Amir

Kings eye second

A win for Kings here guarantees them a top four spot and they could even still finish second. They would still be alive with a defeat - but only just. They would require Jamaica Tallawahs to lose to Guyana Amazon Warriors.

Faf Dui Plessis, back down to No 3, made a welcome return to form with a match-turning 84 against Royals. Samit Patel has lost his spot to Wahab Riaz.

Possible XI Fletcher, Deyal, Du Plessis, Chase, David, Wiese, Alleyne, Wahab, Joseph, Royal, Williams

Looking for runs short

Kings are 1.695/7 with Royals 2.3811/8. We thought the gulf would be much bigger between the two so that could make Kings value. However, only very, very good units should be in the 1.608/13 region in this format and Kings are not that.

A possible alternative is a short of Royals runs batting first. But you'll be having to pay at a pretty low rate. The mid 140s doesn't give much room for a late cameo to push them to the overs.

Tops value

Du Plessis has been boosted to 13/5 for another top bat win for Kings. However, is Mark Deyal a rick at 5/1? He opened last time and Kings may be inclined to stick with the same order given Faf's high score. For Royals Glenn Philips has been boosted to 3/1.

Jamaica Tallawahs v Guyana Amazon Warriors
Sunday 12 September 19.30
TV: live on Betfair, BT Sport

Tallawahs need win

Tallawahs have got to win to stand any chance of qualification. Even if Kings beat the Royals they could still overhaul Guyana or, less likely, Trinbago. But for the latter to happen they would need a big swing on run rate.

Against Guyana on Saturday their spin frailties were once again exposed as they were pinned down for 123 chasing 170.

Possible XI K Lewis, McKenzie, Brooks, Powell, Brathwaite, Russell, Haider, Imad, Pretoirus, Green, Permaul

Guyana looking strong

Amazon's form has picked up. It's three wins from last four. But beware, the odd one out was defeat by Royals. They are prone to lapses of concentration.

And maybe they were lucky - at least batting first - against Tallawahs. Without Nic Pooran's 75 from 39 they would have struggled. Mohammad Hafeez has left for Pakistan duty.

Probable XI King, Hemraj, Hetmyer, Shoaib Malik, Pooran, Shepherd, O Smith, Bramble, Motie, Naveen, Tahir

Spin damns Tallawahs

We've said it once, we've said it a hundred times. Jamiaca's right-handed XI struggles against the ball spinning away from the bat and so it proved again with Gudakesh Motie taking three wickets. He probably should have got the match gong.

If Tallawahs bat first, the bet is to go under around the 155.5 mark on runs. But if they don't we're surprised Guyana aren't clearer favourites. They are 1.824/5.

Tops value

There's a possible rick on Sportsbook's top Guyana bat market. Romario Shepherd sticks out at 35/1 because he batted No 6 last time. We're not saying he wins but he should be more like Odean Smith's 13/1, who was a place lower. Andre Russell is 4/1 for Tallawahs.

St Kitts & Nevis Patriots v Trinbago Knight Riders
Monday 13 September 00.00
TV: live on Betfair, BT Sport

Patriots back

Patriots have roared back. And just in time. The thrashed Trinbago by eight wickets and it was no surprise their mojo man, Evin Lewis, was the inspiration.

Lewis's 52-ball 102 snapped a three-game losing streak and made light of a chase of 160. They won with more than five overs to spare.

Possible XI E Lewis, Gayle, Thomas, Rutherford, Allen, Dwayne Bravo, Drakes, Naseem Shah, Jaggesar, Cottrell

Trinbago ease off

Trinbago have already qualified but they would still be perturbed by the way Patriots got amongst them. They really should have pushed on for a decent score against bowling plans which can be pricey.

More than 170 or even 180 didn't seem impossible at one stage with Colin Munro going well. Denesh Ramdin's return to the side was odd, particularly as he opened the batting.

Possible XI Simmons, Ramdin, Munro, D Bravo, Pollard, Seifert, Narine, Hosein, Ali Khan , Philip, Yasir

Check line-ups

The main thing to note about this match-up is how both teams have made big changes to their XIs. That suggests they're not that fussed about success or not.

No Fawad Ahmed, for example, for Patriots, is a big call. Yasir Shah in for Trinbago with Ravi Rampaul rested is another.

It's fair to be wary of the match odds, then. Understandably the early market is all over the place. Wait and see how they line-up. Luckily there's value on the side markets...

Tops value

As we said, Ramdin was a surprise choice for the opening slot for TKR. And he had a dismal game. But we have to take the 14s about him top scoring because, pure and simple, it's a wrong price. We'd rather just be outlaying on Kieron Pollard at 6/1 because of his excellent head-to-head record against the Patriots. Lewis has been boosted to 13/5.

Ed Hawkins P-L

2021: +8.30
2020: +5.91
2019: +37.25pts
2018: +23.53pts
2017: +12pts
2016: +18.1pts
2015: +38pts
2014: +31.5pts
2013: +25pts
Based only on available prices. Does not include back-to-lay in-running advice or commission rate. Figures 2013-2016 on 1pt level stakes. Includes Hawk-Eye column p-l

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