Caribbean Premier League Day 6 Tips: Tallawahs could buck runs trend

Andre Russell
Keep faith in Russell for runs

Ed Hawkins has the latest trends and stats for the CPL action between Jamaica and Patriots from Warner Park, including a 7/1 bet

"Although a massive ten runs have been lopped off the tournament average, these two have a history of monster totals"

(1pt) Back over 158.5 first-innings runs Tallawahs v Patriots 2.01/1

Jamaica Tallawahs v St Kitts & Nevis Patriots
Thursday 2 September, 00:00
TV: live on BT Sport

Tallawahs can improve

Tallawahs are doing okay and they will be pleased that they get to have a go on a new strip early on. With the bat they are all about muscle so the slower and lower surfaces do not suit their style.

Last time out they chased with ease against Barbados. Shamarh Brooks, who is having an excellent tournament, and Kennar Lewis put bigger batting names in the shade. The form of those two mean they can replace Haider Ali and find room for spinner Qais Ahmed as an overseas pick. That would greatly help their chances.

Possible XI: Walton, K Lewis, Brooks, R Powell, Russell, Brathwaite, Pretorius, Green, Qais, Permaul, Edwards

Patriots in form

The Patriots have won three out of three. Two of those were in chases. And two were against a Guyana team seemingly in disarray. They also beat the Royals. The jury has to be out, then. They are, however, finally picking the right XI by finding room for Jon-Russ Jaggesar. They have excellent spin and pace-off options which seems the way to go.

Chris Gayle has been absent since game one. Finding room for him now would probably mean utilising only three overseas spots with Asif Ali stepping out.

Possible XI: Thomas, E Lewis, Asif, Rutherford, Bravo, Allen, Da Silva, Drakes, Jaggesar, van Meekeren, Fawad

Busting runs trend

The Tallawahs could well be a bet here if they pick the XI we want them to. They are currently 2.1411/10 with Patriots 1.845/6. That's pretty short about a team which remains relatively untested.

This could also be a game which bucks the trend for low scores. Although a massive ten runs have been lopped off the tournament average, these two have a history of monster totals. More than 170 has been busted six times in the last eight first-innings. And, of course, Patriots chased 242 against Tallawahs on this ground in 2019.

Sportsbook 6/5 that both bust 160 or more is an option. We may be able to go long on the par runs line at the high 150s at even money. Both teams busting 170 is 5/2.

Tops value

Sportsbook have spoiled our fun by chopping Fabian Allen from 20s to 8s for top Patriots bat. We could still get the bigger number in-play. For Tallawahs Brooks is not getting the respect he deserves at 7/1. We've already had a winner on him at 9s. Andre Russell is in to 9/2 and we will once again advise an in-play wager at at least 7s.

Warner Park statistics
Average first innings score last three years 170.7
160+ first innings scores 14/23
Won by chaser 12/23

Guyana Amazon Warriors v Trinbago Knight Riders
Wednesday 1 September, 05:00
TV: live on BT Sport

Guyana a let down

Guyana are at a crossroads in the tournament. They have won once in three efforts and stank the place out last time against the Patriots. In favourable conditions and with a balanced squad they should be capable of putting together a sequence of wins to put pressure on Patriots, the leaders.

But it's probably wise to play a watch-and-see game with this mob. The lack of gumption they showed in trying to defend 166 will set alarm bells ringing, particularly with the way they threw the towel in despite being in a good position at the ten-over mark.

Possible XI: Hafeez, Hemraj, Hetmyer, King, Malik, Pooran, Bramble, O Smith, Sinclair, Naveen, Tahir,

Trinbago doing okay

Trinbago aren't pulling up any trees, either with two wins from four. But they at least come into the clash with confidence up, gaining revenge on Kings for their defeat.

They produced the sort of bowling performance that one would have expected from Guyana against Patriots. Tight and efficient as they defended 157. Spinners Sunil Narine and Akeal Hosein tied the game down and one can expect those two to have a major say on the tournament going forward.

Possible XI: Simmons, Narine, Webster, Munro, Pollard, Seifert, Ramdin, Udana, Hosein, Rampaul, Seales

Knight Riders more trustworthy

Trinbago are 1.855/6 with Guyana 2.166/5. In the previous meeting - the curtain-raiser - Guyana triumphed in a tight game, defending 142 with nine runs to spare.

One suspects the toss will be key with the winning side batting first. But do be aware that we have now moved to a new strip. This means we have to be cautious about expecting batting to get tougher. They will move to a third strip for the final third of the tournament. So if you're wanting to play overs on the runs par line, now would be the most likely time to do it.

If Trinbago get the toss in their favour we would hope the price holds. And it looks a good one given Guyana's issues.

Tops value

Lendl Simmons has been price boosted to 7/2 with Sportsbook for top Trinbago bat. He's been hugely disappointing but it remains a massive edge on win rate. We also like Denesh Ramdin at 16s after he top-scored in the previous meeting. For Guyana Shoaib Malik looks chunky at 10/1.


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