Ed Hawkins previews Tuesday's action in the Caribbean Premier League as the T20 tournament moves to the Queen's Park Oval...
"This could be Patriots’ best chance to get that batting unit firing. On an unused wicket the likes of Lewis and Dunk may be able to cut lose for the first time..."
Barbados Tridents v St Kitts & Nevis Patriots
Tuesday 25 August 15.00
TV: live on Betfair Video
Holders in a mess
The holders are beginning to creak. They have won once in three and they were outclassed by Trinbago in their last outing.
Tridents' problem is that they don't know how to make use of their resources. Hayden Walsh, last year's top wicket-taker, is being underbowled. He has sent down only three overs out of a potential nine (the five-over thrash against the Zouks would have restricted him to just one).
If Walsh isn't required, then pick an extra batsman, or a death bowler. But then Mitchell Santner is also being underbowled. Rashid Khan is being underused as a batsman. Basically, they're a mess.
Possible XI Charles, Hope Anderson, Mayers, Carter, Holder, Nurse, Reifer, Santner, Rashid, Walsh
Patriots' campaign is on the brink of disaster. A fourth defeat in four will require them needing to win four of their final six to qualify. Not impossible but they are another side suffering from a lack of balance.
They are top loaded, putting too much store in Evin Lewis, Chris Lynn and Ben Dunk as power players. If that lot don't do the job they have little batting left. They are also shy of quality spin options. Room needs to be made for leggie Imran Khan.
Possible XI Lewis, Lynn, Kelly, Ramdin, Dunk, Hamilton, Drakes, Emrit, Sodhi, Jaggesar, Cottrell
2020 Tridents 153-9 (Holder 38, 2-16 Emrit, Cottrell) defended Patri-ots 147-5 (Da Silva 41*, Santner 2-18)
2019 Patriots 149-7 (Brooks 53, Walsh 2-37) defended Tridents 148 (Shakib 38, Cottrell 3-27)
Tridents 186-2 (Charles 52, Emrit 1-34) defended Patriots 168-9 (Walsh 2-33)
New pitch alert
The last 15 first-innings scores at the Queen's Park Oval (1-2 denote match won by side batting first or second, most recent first) read: 134-2/185-1/168-1/191-1/157-1/180-1/170-1/203-1/223-2/195-1/118-2/147-2/156-2/152-2/158-2. That is an average score of 169 and judging on the record of the chaser, the side batting first is going to need a minimum of 8.5 an over to be in the game. As this is the first match at the Queen's Park we expect batting to be at its best.
Patriots need to go big
Tridents are [1.78] with Patriots [2.20]. That's a mean price on a Tridents team who seem unable to make use of their best players. Until we get some evidence that they know the strengths of the squad they have assembled, we're going to have to swerve.
This could be Patriots' best chance to get that batting unit firing. On an unused wicket the likes of Lewis and Dunk may be able to cut lose for the first time. But not Lynn, he is really struggling against spin. So far he has 18 runs for three wickets and Sportsbook's 5/4 he goes under 18.5 runs could see some business.
A trade could work with Patriots batting first and using scoreboard pressure to squeeze. This time there should be no worries about rain with the forecast set fair.
On last year's form Walsh is not a 3/1 chance for top Tridents bowler. But this year he is hardly being used so we can't get involved.
Lewis has had starts for Patriots and not gone on. This could be his time but with a 14% win rate on top bat coming into the tournament the 12/5 is not much fun.
Jamaica Tallawahs v Guyana Amazon Warriors
Tuesday 25 August 22.30
TV: live on Betfair Video
The Tallawahs have been easy to call so far. They are the most powerful batting unit in the tournament - but only if the wickets they are playing on are roads. Alas for Jamaica they are spin friendly and increasingly slow.
Guyana perfectly exposed their weakness in an extraordinary encounter when they defended the lowest CPL total ever (118) and tied their batters in so many knots that the record for dot balls in a T20 innings was smashed. It's why Tallawahs have won only once in three and their play-off hopes will remain on a knife edge.
Possible XI Walton, Phillips, Bonner, Powell, Ali, Brathwaite, Russell, Lamichhane, Edwards, Mujeed, THomas
What's gone wrong with Guyana? They have already lost twice this term. Going down in game one to Trinbago is excusable but a damaging defeat to the St Lucia Zouks is not. And it is easy to spot holes in their performances.
The success over the Patriots looks shaky in hindsight as their batters struggled and even though they pulled it out of the bag against Tallawahs we have to ask why they were finding runmaking so hard. Nowt wrong with the spin attack, though. One suspects Imran Tahir and Chris Green have plenty of work on their hands.
Possible XI King, Hemraj, Hetmyer, Taylor, Pooran, Rutherford, Paul, Green, Naveen, Need, Tahir
2020 Guyana 118 (King 29, Brathwaite 3-14) defended Jamaica 104-7 (Russell 52*, Green 2-10)
2019 Guyana 156-6 (Thomas 2-40) defended Jamaica 79 (Phillips 21, Tahir 3-12)
Guyana 218-6 defended Jamaica 137 (40 Phillips, Russell, Paul 3-34)
Guyana can hit back
Guyana have won five of their last six against Jamaica and remarkable wins are not uncommon. They will expect to get back on track and will perhaps be grateful that the Queen's park pitch is better for batting.
But so too will Jamaica. This represents probably their best chance of that dangerous batting line-up striking well.
Whether that justifies the gap in odds remains to be seen. Guyana at [1.84] looks big with Tallawahs [2.12]. The rational mind says Warriors are a wager as, surely, Tallawahs will continue to struggle against an army of spinners.
Glenn Phillips followed his top-bat win with a duck against GAW. But the 11/5 with Sportsbook is value on win rate.
Tahir disappointed in terms of wickets in the last meetings. But a price boost of 7/4 to 2/1 will encourage many to get involved for top bowler.
Nic Pooran is a smidge of value at 5s for top GAW bat. We do wish he would be placed above Ross Taylor in the order, though.
Caribbean Premier League Preview Part I on Cricket...Only Bettor
Caribbean Premier League Preview Part II on Cricket...Only Bettor
Ed Hawkins P-L
Based only on available prices. Does not include back-to-lay in-running match advice or commission rate. Figures 2013-2016 on 1pt level stakes. New points system (0.5pt-5) introduced for 2017. Includes Hawk-Eye stats column p-l
Trade Patriots bat first [2.20] to [1.60]
Back Guyana Amazon Warriors [1.84] (2pts)