Caribbean Premier League Day 4 Tips: Patriots should chalk up first win

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Ed Hawkins previews both games on day four of the T20 tournament on Saturday from Tarouba...

"Prices of around [1.90] on the Patriots on the exchange (taking our lead from 10/11 Patriots with Sportsbook) rate a good wager with the toss in their favour"

St Kitts & Nevis Patriots v St Lucia Zouks
Saturday 22 August 15:00
TV: live on Betfair Video

Patriots need to fire

The Patriots have lost their first two to Guyana and Tridents. Hardly an easy start from the fixture computer against the favourites and holders. This represents a great chance to bounce back.

On both occasions it was their batting that let them down. They have put a lot of store in an impressive four of front five - Evin Lewis, Chris Lynn, Denesh Ramdin and Ben Dunk - but so far they have failed to fire. That is going to have to change. They are also low on quality spin options. Ish Sodhi has a big burden with Jos-Russ Jaggesar unproven.

Possible XI Lewis, Lynn, Kelly, Ramdin, Dunk, Hamilton, Drakes, Emrit, Sodhi, Jaggesar, Cottrell

Zouks shock

The Zouks pulled off a [2.60] shock in only their second game - downing the Tridents. But they needed a massive downpour to do it. Heavy rain reduced the gulf and meant that even the infamously unreliable Zouks didn't have the time to muck things up.

The rain came with 11 balls left in Tridents on 131 for seven. That meant Zouks were given a target of just 47 from five overs. Such a chase with all ten wickets hand was a breeze.

Possible XI Fletcher, Cornwall, Zadran, Nabi, Sammy, Deyal, Chase, Kuggeleijn, Williams, McCoy, Zafar

Last year head-to-heads

Zouks 165-5 (Fletcher 36) defended Patriots 145-9 (Williams 3-48)
Patriots 143-3 (Lewis 65, Williams 1-27) chased Zouks 138-9

Toss bias alert

There have now been 14 CPL matches played at the Brian Lara Stadium in Tarouba. The first-innings scores (1-2 denote match won by side batting first or second, most recent first): 137-2/135-2/127-2/158-2/144-2/153-1/171-1/160-1/147-2/165-1/135-2/159-2/168-2/159-1. That's five wins in a row for the chaser, which is the beginning of a trend. At the moment the bias is 64% which should be enough to convince us to start factoring in the toss.

Zouks could struggle in chase

The toss bias is particularly important for Zouks, who came into the tournament with just a 21% win rate batting first. The Patriots are superior batting second, too. This is our edge.

Prices of around [1.90] on the Patriots on the exchange (taking our lead from 10/11 Patriots with Sportsbook) rate a good wager with the toss in their favour. The 5/6 Zouks is one of the worst prices you are likely to see. There is more rain forecast but that will help the chaser.

Tanvir underrated

Kesrick Williams is 5/2 for top bowler for Zouks. He has a good record against the Patriots and his price is underrated on win rate.

Sheldon Cottrell has been boosted to 7/4 for top bowler for Patriots. He has one tie this term after returning 47% of the time in the last two years.

But Sohail Tanvir is 4/1 and he returned 45% over the same study period.

Guyana Amazon Warriors v Jamaica Tallawahs
Saturday 22 August, 19:15
TV: live on Betfair Video

Guyana tuning up

Guyana got back on track after an opening-day defeat by Trinbago. They beat the Patriots with the sort of powerful bowling display which was characteristic of their charge to the final last season.

They restricted the Patriots to just 127-8 with Keemo Paul the star, claiming four wickets. Imran Tahir picked up two. Shimron Hetmyer took a huge step towards top batsmen honours with another half-century in reply.

Possible XI King, Hemraj, Hetmyer, Taylor, Pooran, Rutherford, Paul, Shepherd, Naveen, Tahir

Tallawahs need smarts

The Tallawahs were exposed by Trinbago in their last outing. Sure, they have plenty of power with the bat but what happens on a wearing, spinning surface when they have to be cute?

They collapse in a heap. A total of 135-8 was always going to be below par. They need to find room for Jermaine Blackwood to help work the gaps.

Possible XI Walton, Phillips, Kirton, Powell, Asif Ali, Powell, Russell, Lewis, Edwards, Lamichhane, Mujeeb

Edge for Warriors

Guyana are [1.73] with Tallawahs [2.34]. This is a rare opportunity to get with Guyana at decent odds against opposition they should have little trouble with.

The key is spin. With Imran Tahir's leggies set to trouble Jamaica's surfeit of right-handers (Fawad Ahmed tied them in knots) and offie Chris Green showing decent form, Jamaica's big strength - their power hitters - could be nullified. If there's no pace on the ball and plenty of spin they might not be able to play their natural game.

Chandrapaul Hemraj may also be asked by Guyana to turn the ball away from Jamaica's right-handers.

As discussed in our pitch report above, chasing is looking trickier by the day in Tarouba. Luckily, Guyana are expert chasers in hard conditions, winning 74% of the time before this year's edition.

Tops value

Tahir has an excellent record for top bowler and we are grateful for Sportsbook boosting his odds for highest Warriors wicket-taker from 7/4 to 2/1 in this game. The combination of his win rate and Jamaica's right-handers makes it a wise wager.

***

Caribbean Premier League Preview Part I on Cricket...Only Bettor

Caribbean Premier League Preview Part II on Cricket...Only Bettor

Ed Hawkins P-L

2020: -27.25
2019: +37.25pts
2018: +23.53pts
2017: +12pts
2016: +18.1pts
2015: +38pts
2014: +31.5pts
2013: +25pts
Based only on available prices. Does not include back-to-lay in-running match advice or commission rate. Figures 2013-2016 on 1pt level stakes. New points system (0.5pt-5) introduced for 2017. Includes Hawk-Eye stats column p-l

Ed Hawkins,

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