Caribbean Premier League Day 11 Tips: Tallawahs might hit back

Andre Russell
Russell's price has been hiked

Ed Hawkins previews the action in the CPL on Wednesday from Warner Park and picks a 10/1 wager

"We'll just take the 10/1 pre-toss about Russell and hope they come to their senses about the batting order"

(0.5pts) Back Andre Russell top Tallawahs bat 11.010/1

Guyana Amazon Warriors v St Lucia Kings
Thursday 9 September 00.00
TV: live on Betfair, BT Sport

Warriors spent

Guyana have been a big swerve since their second defeat by Patriots. They have poor discipline and work ethic. It's the only explanation for such a poor return with such a talented squad.

Last time out they were duffed up by bottom-of-the-table Royals, who smashed 185 batting first. Guyana may well still qualify but hopes of a title look forlon.

Possible XI King, Hemrak, hafeez, Hetmyer, Pooran, Shoaib Malik, O Smith, SHepherd, Motie, Sinclair, Tahir

Kings eye crown

A victory for Kings will send them to the top of the table. Since Jamaica got hold of their attack in their first match they have not looked back and look to be the strongest side.

They beat the Patriots, the previous runaway leaders, by 100 runs and six wickets in the double header. It laid down a marker. Incredibly after the horrible effort against Tallawahs they now have the meanest bowling unit and will take some stopping. We would like them to find room for Usman Qadir, though.

Possible XI Fletcher, Du Plessis, Chase, Samit Patel, David, Cottoy, Paul, Wahab, Joseph, Royal, Williams.

Kings a great price

Crazy price alert. Why on earth are Guyana early favourites for this one at 1.845/6? The odds are hopelessly the wrong way round and this has to be the worst value of the tournament so far.

No matter, we have to bet Kings at 2.206/5. They have nothing to fear from a bowling unit which has lost its way and a batting line-up they can tie down with ease.

Tops value

One price we were watching out for was that of Keron Cottoy for top Kings bat. He was in at No 3 last time out with Mark Deyal not selected. It could be a permanent move or a one-off experiment. But Sportsbook are alert and go 9/2. But should Samit Patel be 8/1?

St Kitts & Nevis Patriots v Jamaica Tallawahs
Wednesday 8 September 15.00
TV: live on Betfair, BT Sport

Patriots under pressure?

How do the Patriots react to their first defeat? Do the nerves start to jangle as they perhaps doubt they were a one-trick pony? Patriots had chased in four straight wins but came unstuck when they batted first against the emerging power that is St Lucia Kings and were rolled for 118.

The big problem, though, is with the ball. They are leaking runs and are vying with Tallawahs for the most expensive unit in the tournament. They need to get spinners Fawad Ahmed and Jon-Russ Jaggesar working in tandem. The latter has only played once.

Possible XI Thomas, E Lewis, Gayle, Ali, Rutherford, Dwayne Bravo, Allen, Drakes, Jaggesar, Cottrell, Fawad,

Horrible effort

You will have to go a long way to see a more brainless, dysfunctional T20 performance than Tallawahs against Trinbago on Tuesday. With ball and bat they were atrocious.

Fielding first they were doing okay before completely losing their nerve, conceding an equal-record number of runs for the last 18 balls. The 63-run haemorrhage put a low-confidence batting unit under more pressure.

They fell apart for 92 and their constant re-ordering bears testament to a unit which doesn't really know what it's doing. Andre Russell at No 8 anyone?

Possible XI K Lewis, Haider, Mohammaed, Brooks, Imad, Brooks, Powell, Russell, Pretorius, Green, Permaul

Tallawahs have a chance

Patriots are 1.738/11 with Tallawahs 2.305/4. Despite Tallawahs' awful performance against Trinbago, a case can be made.

That's because of the Patriots' leaky bowling and their reluctance to pick two spinners. Tallawahs actually couldn't have hoped for a better next opponent to try to get back on track.

A runs wager is tricky. The trend is for shorting runs as the pitches get slower but it's conceivable either team could lose discipline and the bet goes down at the death. The alternative is to go big in the last three or four overs, adding 40 or 50 runs to the total.

Tops value

We've abandoned our strategy of backing Russell in-play at inflated odds with Sportsbook. That's because the Tallawahs batting is so hopeless he actually shortens. At one stage he was 8/11 and he wasn't even at the crease. We'll just take the 10/1 pre-toss and hope they come to their senses about the batting order.

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