Caribbean Premier League Day 1 Tips: Trinbago and Pollard to put down marker

Green  lines up for Guyana with Tanvir at Patriots
Chris Green and Sohail Tanvir
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Our cricket tipster Ed Hawkins previews match day one from Tarouba with the two favourites meeting in the opener at Brian Lara Stadium...

"Tridents are the holders after an extraordinary surge. They had won only to of their first six. They then revamped their squad"

Trinbago Knight Riders v Guyana Amazon Warriors
Tuesday 18 August 15:00
TV: live on Betfair Video

Trinbago firing

Trinbago have been handed a golden chance to win a fourth title with all tournament matches on home soil. Better still, Sunil Narine and Dwayne Bravo, two key all-rounders, are fit and firing after missing chunks of an underwhelming campaign.

Under the guidance of Kieron Pollard they should go very close indeed, as discussed in our preview. The addition of Kiwi keeper Tim Seifert, joining blaster Colin Munro, is a shrewd pick.

Possible XI Simmons, Narine, Munro, Seifert, Bravo, Pollard, Dwayne Bravo, Pierre, Ali Khan, Fawad, Seales

Green key

Guyana won 11 straight matches last term and then lost their 12th. Unfortunately for them that was the final. Can they go one better?

The key is spinner Chris Green. Green has been banned for chucking and if he is a reduced threat because of a remodelled action that is the sort of negative that could cost them. It is a small margin but that's how good these top two sides are. In Brandon King, Nic Pooran, Shimron Hetmyer and Ross Taylor they have four of the best 'top five' in the competition. Imran Tahir is a gun with the ball, of course.

Possible XI King, Hemraj, Pooran, Hetmyer, Taylor, Paul, Rutherford, Shepherd, Green, Tahir, Smith

Last year head-to-heads

Guyana 144-3 (Pooran 54*, Pierre 1-25) chased Trinbago 143-5 (Mun-ro 43, Hemraj 3-15)
Guyana 185-6 (Hemraj 66) defended Trinbago 166-5 (Pollard 71, Green 2-18)

Pitch report

There have been eight CPL matches played at the Brian Lara Stadium in Tarouba. The first-innings scores (1-2 denote match won by side batting first or second, most recent first): 171-1/160-1/147-2/165-1/135-2/159-2/168-2/159-1.

The pitch should be at its best for batting early on in the tournament. Even so, the side batting first may reckon that 165 may be more than competitive. Keeping low numbers on your side on the innings runs markets is a strategy for the entire competition.
Trinbago
Ave score for 148
Ave score against 149
Guyana
Ave score for 145
Ave score against 141

Hosts have edge

Just as is the case with the outright, these two can't be split. Hosts Trinbago are [1.98] with Guyana [2.0].

We suspect that Trinbago have the edge and their superior knowledge of the surface on their island could pay dividends. For Guyana, they return to the venue where Tridents pipped them for the title. It could take them a while to adjust to wickets outside their own venue, Providence.

Tops value

Kieron Pollard wins 20% of the time for top Trinbago bat in the last two years. The 11/2 (15.4%) is value with Sportsbook.

Fawad Ahmed returns money 40.9% of the time over the same study period for top bowler. Take the 10/3 Sportsbook offer.

Imran Tahir Returns money 38% of the time for top bowler. Guyana rate him at 7/4, a 36.4% rating. Slight value. Romario Shepherd, who also returns 38% of the time, is better at 7/2.

Barbados Tridents v St Kitts & Nevis Patriots
Tuesday 18 August 22.30
TV: live on Betfair Video

Relying on Rashid

Tridents are the holders after an extraordinary surge. They had won only two of their first six. They then revamped their squad, bringing in Harry Gurney, Shakib-al-Hasan and making better use of JP Duminy and Hayden Walsh, the spinner who ended up top tournament wicket-taker.

This year Gurney, Shakib and Duminy are absent. Rashid Khan is an excellent signing but their batting looks weak and fast-bowling is an issue.

Possible XI Charles, Greaves, Brooks, Hope, Anderson, Holder, Rashid, Nurse, Carter, Walsh, Reifer

All pace

Patriots possibly have the best pace attack with an axis of Joseph-Cottrell-Emrit-Tanvir but the big concern is whether they have enough spin nous. Ish Sodhi is solid rather than spectacular. They could make a fast start but struggle later on when the two venues get slower and lower wickets.

Possible XI Lewis, Lynn, De Silva, Dunk, Ramdin, Drakes, Joseph, Imran Khan, Sodhi, Cottrell, Emrit

Last year's head-to-heads

Patriots 149-7 (Brooks 53, Walsh 2-37) defended Tridents 148 (Shakib 38, Cottrell 3-27)
Tridents 186-2 (Charles 52, Emrit 1-34) defended Patriots 168-9 (Walsh 2-33)

Pitch report

Here are the first-innings scores from the eight CPL matches played at the Brian Lara Stadium in Tarouba (1-2 denote match won by side batting first or second, most recent first): 171-1/160-1/147-2/165-1/135-2/159-2/168-2/159-1

Tridents
Ave score for
151
Ave score against 143

Patriots
Ave score for
151
Ave score against 151

Patriots value up front

Tridents have a win percentage of just 30 batting second. So with the wicket at its best and Patriots boasting gun hitters up front, surely they will bat first given the opportunity. If the toss goes that way, Patriots look to be the value at around the [2.10] mark. Tridents are [1.80].

Tops value

Sheldon Cottrell is Mr Reliable for top Patriots bowler on two-year form. He returns money 47% of the time. Sportsbook go 7/4. It is a crowded market though with Alzarri Joseph (30%), Sohail Tanvir (45%) and Ryad Emrit (36%) all in the mix.

Justin Greaves is 9/1 for top Tridents bat. He has no form to go on but if he plays he could open.

Hayden Walsh won or shared honours 63% in 11 matches last term. Sportsbook go 3/1 he takes most wickets for Tridents. Rashid is 7/4.


***
Caribbean Premier League Preview Part I on Cricket...Only Bettor

Caribbean Premier League Preview Part II on Cricket...Only Bettor


Ed Hawkins P-L

2020: -16.05
2019: +37.25pts
2018: +23.53pts
2017: +12pts
2016: +18.1pts
2015: +38pts
2014: +31.5pts
2013: +25pts
Based only on available prices. Does not include back-to-lay in-running match advice or commission rate. Figures 2013-2016 on 1pt level stakes. New points system (0.5pt-5) introduced for 2017. Includes Hawk-Eye stats column p-l

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