Caribbean Premier League Semi-Final: Will Trinbago slip-up?

Andre Russell
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It's semi-final day in Tarouba on Tuesday in the T20 tournament. Ed Hawkins has all the stats and trends...

"Although we rate Guyana as a superior side now confidence has been returned, the pitch could be a great leveller"

Trade Zouks [2.40] to [1.60]

Trinbago Knight Riders v Jamaica Tallawahs
Tuesday 8 September 15:00
TV: Betfair Video

Trinbago back to full-strength?

Trinbago completed the group stage with a 100% record. They thrashed the hopeless Patriots by nine wickets on Sunday to make it ten wins from ten.

But that record is irrelevant now. One slip up and they are out. No doubt there will be nerves about what happened to Guyana last season when they won every single game on the way to the final only to fall at the last hurdle.

They rested Lendl Simmons, Colin Munro, Dwayne Bravo and Sunil Narine in the final group match and all should come back in.

Possible XI Simmons, Narine, Munro, DM Bravo, K Pollard, T Seifert, K Pierre, Raza, Hosein, Fawad, Tambe

In a spin

Jamaica warmed up for their semi-final with a poor effort against the St Lucia Zouks, emphasising that with only three wins in the group stage they probably shouldn't be here.

They had started well in both innings before losing control. They reduced the Zouks to 63 for four but they recovered to post a challenging 146. And they were then in charge at 84 for no loss in the 12th before collapsing and falling 14 short.

It was not unexpected. Tallawahs struggle against spin and the Zouks squeezed the life from the chase.

Possible XI Phillips, Blackwood, Walton, Powell, Russell, Bonner, Brathwaite, Permaul, Mujeeb, Lamichhane, Edwards

Head-to-heads

2020 TKR 184-4 (Munro 65, Brathwaite 2-24) defended JT 165-5 (Russell 50*, Fawad 2-21)
TKR 136-3 (Narine 53, Mujeeb 1-13) chased 135-8 JT (Phillips 58, Seales 2-21)
2019 TKR 267-2 (Munro 96*) defended JT 226-5 (Phillips 62)
TKR 191-4 (Webster 66*) defended JT 169-6Overall Tridents 10 Zouks 5
Overall TKR 9 JT 9

Pitch report

There have now been 27 CPL matches played at the Brian Lara Stadium in Tarouba. The first-innings scores (1-2 denote match won by side batting first or second, most recent first): 146-1/77-2/161-2/175-1/89-2/109-2/174-1/184-1/92-2/144-1/185-1/118-1/176-1/137-2/135-2/127-2/158-2/144-2/153-1/171-1/160-1/147-2/165-1/135-2/159-2/168-2/159-1. The first-innings average is 145.

TKR in charge



Trinbago are [1.57]. That's pretty chunky considering their win record, potent spin attack and the debilitating weakness that will surely deny the Tallawahs a final spot. The champions-elect, if they so wished, could bowl 20 overs of spin to tie down Tallawahs.

So what can Jamaica do? Well, batting first is an option. If they do they should target 150 instead of trying to bust something bigger. The likes of Andre Russell and Rovman Powell need to find gaps on the ground rather in the stand. If they manage that then Sandeep Lamichhane and Mujeeb ur Rahman could employ a squeeze of their own. That would be the thinking, at least, behind taking the [2.70] for a trade.

Jamaica's best hope could be the weather. If rain reduces the overs to make it a thrash and bash, Jamaica's gung-ho approach would be suited.

Tops value

We've won twice out of three on Glenn Phillips for top Jamaica bat but even though Sportsbook's 3/1 is incorrect on win rate, we don't go in for back-to-backs. Phillips won against Zouks.

Mujeeb, top wicket-taker in the tournament, is 2/1 for top Jamaica bowler with Sportsbook. Fawad Ahmed, who topped in the previous head-to-head, is 11/4 for Trinbago.

Guyana Amazon Warrior v St Lucia Zouks
Tuesday 9 September 22:30
TV: live on Betfair Video

Back to their best

After a horrible start to the campaign when their batting kept collapsing in a heap, Guyana have got back on track. They have won four in a row and fears that they might not make it after a horror show against Tallawahs in game 12 are a distant memory.

Brandon King, Shimron Hetmyer and Nic Pooran have all rediscovered their batting mojo since. The bowlers never lost it. Imran Tahir and Chris Green have been superb while Naveen-ul-Haq and Kevin Sinclair have been unlikely heroes. Romario Shepherd was also in the wickets as Tridents were dismissed last time out.

Possible XI King, Hemraj, Hetmyer, Pooran, Taylor, Paul, Rutherford, Green, Shepherd, Naveen, Tahir

Zouks the real deal



The Zouks finished the group stage with another eye-catching performance - this time against Tallawahs. Twice they looked down and out in either innings only to roar back. They just don't know when they're beaten. Who'd have thought a team coached by Andy Flower would have mental strength?

Flower has been instrumental in turning around their fortunes, not least the replacement of team owners. They are far more interested in on-the-field matters after the chaos of the last few years.

Skipper Daren Sammy doesn't really contribute with bat or ball but is purely in the XI for shrewd decisions and motivational speeches. Whatever he's saying, it's working.

Possible XI Cornwall, Deyal, Fletcher, Chase, Nabi, Zadran, Glen, Sammy, Kuggeleijn, Williams, Zahir

Head-to-heads

2020 GAW 110-3 (Hetmyer 56*, Glen 1-9) chased Zouks 109-7 (Glen 23, Naveen 2-24)
Zouks 144-7 (Chase 66, Tahir 3-22) defended GAW 134-8 (pooran 68, Kuggeleign 3-24)
2019 GAW 162-2 (King 81*) chased Zouks 161-7 (Tahir 2-23)
GAW 155-9 (Paul 38, McCoy 4-41) defended Zouks 142-6 (Cornwall 36, Shepherd 2-18)Overall TKR 11 GAW 9
Overall GAW 10 Zouks 5

Easy Zouks trade

Unlike the first-semi-final this is a contest. And although we rate Guyana as a superior side now confidence has been returned, the pitch could be a great leveller.

It will be the same wicket used for the Trinbago-Tallawahs clash so there is unlikely to be any pace for batsmen or bowlers to enjoy. A slow, low affair, then.

This helps Zouks. They will target Guyana's notable lefties - Hetmyer and Pooran - with their army of off-spinners while forecast rain might not be a bad thing if they were to chase.

All told, the Zouks efficiency and fighting spirit make them an easy trade option. We can seem them coming into [1.60] territory with a squeeze from spin from [2.40].

Tops value

Ross Taylor has had a quiet tournament. But on the big occasion - and on a wicket which suits his style - he could be vital. The 5/1 about a top Warriors bat win appeals. For Zouks, Mark Deyal should be shorter than 7/2 as we expect him to open the batting and continue decent form.

***

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