Premier League Tips

The champions suffered defeat by Hobart Hurricanes in their opener. It was a game they will reckon they should have won and they will be scratching their heads as to how they didn't.

They were in control in both innings up until the death. Bowling first, Hobart were struggling at 127 for six in the 17th but Sixers lost complete control, conceding 178. In the chase they were sitting pretty at 118 for one with Jack Edwards and James Vince in charge. A collapse, however, saw them come up short.

An injury to Moises Henriques has depleted their options further with Sean Abbott, Nathan Lyon and Mitchell Starc all absent.

Probable XI Philippe, Edwards, Vince, Hughes, Silk, Christian, Brathwaite, O'Keefe, Dwarshius, Manenti, Sandhu

Renegades fire

Renegades downed Perth Scorchers in their opener with a strong bowling performance. Josh Lalor and Kane Richardson combined to take three wickets apiece as Perth could manage only 130.

The chase was a simple one with Shaun Marsh and Aaron Finch doing the bulk of the work as openers. Champions two years ago, Renegades look a decent unit again this year after a disastrous campaign last term.

What is particularly impressive is their selection of Benny Howell, who bowled three overs for just 14. Alongside Richardson and Lalor it looks like one of the strongest bowling line-ups in the tournament.

Possible XI Finch, S Marsh, Harper, Rossouw, Fraser-McGurk, Webster, Howell, Prestwidge, Richardson, Lalor, Hatzoglou

Pitch report

Last year's scores (1-2 denote match won by team batting first or second) at Bellerive read: 197-1/185-1/175-1/212-1/147-2. In the Hobart-Sixers opener the surface lived up to its historic reputation as one full of runs (four-year data had sides busting 160 66% of the time). Hobart notched 178 and then squeezed Sixers. We would expect more than 170 to be on the cards here but we can be smart.

We have said previously that Sixers might struggle at the death because of a lack of death bowling so going long (40 or 50 in the last three) could pay off for low stakes at big numbers.

Trade Sixers batting first

Sixers are 2.166/5 with Renegades 1.834/5. It is perhaps understandable that the match odds market would favour Renegades after their strong win against Perth but these sides are well-matched.

Sixers have superior batting depth but the Renegades bowling is stronger. Even so, with Sixers batting first we would expect the prices to flip the other way by the break. So a relatively simple trade of last year's winners into favourite status makes sense.

Tops value

Finch has a 38.8% win rate in the last two years on top runscorer markets (including the outing versus Perth). Sportsbook rate him at 15/8 (34.8%). Shaun Marsh, his opening partner, has a 31% win rate after topping against Scorchers. He is 16/5 (23.8%). Could it be Finch's turn to shine? He averages 41 against the Sixers and 40 at Bellerive.

For Sixers, favourite Josh Philippe is slightly overrated at 13/5. We have his win rate under 25%. The only batsman who rates value as a wrong price in terms of two-year win rate is big hitter Jordan Silk. Sportsbook go 11/1. We think he should be more like 10s.

Ben Dwarshius, Sixers' best death bowler, has little to beat for top Sixers wicket-taker. But at 3/1 Sportsbook know this. It's a price which is bang on the win rate. For Renegades, Josh Lalor is huge value at 7/2 for top bowler. He returns money 43.4% of the time and has an excellent record against Sixers.

Ed Hawkins P-L

2020: +1.29
2019: +37.25pts
2018: +23.53pts
2017: +12pts
2016: +18.1pts
2015: +38pts
2014: +31.5pts
2013: +25pts
Based only on available prices. Does not include back-to-lay in-running match advice or commission rate. Figures 2013-2016 on 1pt level stakes. New points system (0.5pt-5) introduced for 2017. Includes Hawk-Eye stats column p-l. To include year end COB Best Bets