Big Bash Tips Matches 13 and 14: Chase bias threatens Stars start

• Gabba pitch says runs

• Likewise weak Heat attack

• Stars off to a flyer

• Chase bias in Canberra

• Shadab Khan threat to Stars

Brisbane Heat v Adelaide Strikers
Sunday 27 December, 08.15
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Brisbane Heat v Adelaide Strikers Big Bash tips

It is early days, of course, but it does looks as though Brisbane Heat and Adelaide Strikers might struggle to put together significant title challenges this season.

Strikers have won one and lost one but were outclassed by Stars last time out. On a road at home they could muster only 155, a target which was chasd inside 19 overs. Heat have lost two from three and alarm bells are ringing. They appear to have a major problem in the field. In their three games they have conceded 200-plus twice and more than 190.

The Gabba is expected to be flat. In the last two years the average run rate in Bash night matches is 9.1 in the last two years and, of course, Heat successfully chased Scorchers' 257 earlier this week. 

The immediate idea for profit, then, is to bet runs. But the anxiety about that comes from relying on Adelaide's line-up which lacks batting quality, Matt Short aside. Over Heat runs is available at 10/111.91 at 171.5. Both teams to score 170 or 180 are 5/42.25 and 5/23.50 respectively. They have won four times and twice in the last ten.

Heat are still without skip Nathan McSweeney so Xavier Bartlett will deputise. Adelaide have dropped Alex Ross from the squad.

We are still waiting on a Jamie Overton top bowler win for Strikers. His win rate is better than the 4/15.00 Sportsbook offer. We also note the 50s about Hassan Ali top-scoring for Strikers. He is a very handy at No 8  and there's not a huge amount to beat in this line-up.

Melbourne Stars v Sydney Thunder
Sunday 28 December, 08.15
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Melbourne Stars v Sydney Thunder Big Bash tips

Melbourne Stars have never won the Big Bash but with three wins out of three they are bang on course to finally live up to their moniker. With Sixers and Hurricanes two of their victims already they could be the real deal.

Such has been their pace out of the blocks that Stars know they may only need another three wins to claim an all-important top two spot. Another four would guarantee it.

They are 1.758/11 to beat a Thunder team who are a tricky opponent but one which they should expect to take the points from. The main job will be to win the toss and chase. It's 19 wins from 28 batting second in Bash night matches at Canberra. If the flip goes Thunder's way, then there is a clear opportunity for at least a trade on the outsiders.

The second job will be to keep quiet all-rounder Shadab Khan, who is a threat with bat and ball. Otherwise there's little to fear from  a Thunder line-up which has the propensity to get bogged down with the bat with David Warner and Cameron Bancroft prone to a go-slow. Shadab is 12s for top Thunder bat and it would be a surprise if he didn't win at least once. 

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