Big Bash Tips 39 and 40: Heat and Sixers set for crucial clash

• Sixers prepare for must-win match v Heat

• Neighbours Thudner already out

• Smith's win-rates explored

• Strikers-Renegades set for runs

Perth Scorchers v Melbourne Stars Big Bash tips

Perth Scorchers v Melbourne Stars

Saturday 17 January, 08.15
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Perth and Melbourne Stars clash with the winner guaranteed to finish in top spot. The loser will miss out on a front two finish, making their task much harder in the play-offs.

Stars might be flattering to deceive in this competition, though. All six of their wins have come when they batted second.  On the three ocassions they have had to bat first, they have lost. Scorchers really should put them under pressure if the flip goes their way.

The hosts are short favourites at 1.748/11 to take the points and finish in first place. The end-of-season scramble has rarely been as competitive. Hobart, with six wins, could miss out on the top two themselves on net run rate if Sixers were to win their last match. 

Scorchers have been boosted with the news that Josh Inglis is available again. He was rested for their last match against Renegades under a management plan. Stars welcome back Joe Clarke after injury but there is a doubt about Marcus Stoinis's fitness after receiving a blow to his thumb. He has been named in the squad, though.

While Stoinis has been brilliant, fellow all-rounder Glenn Maxwell has really struggled. Maxwell has often spoken about how, once stuck in a rut, he has no answers as to how to clamber out. He has passed double figures only twice in six innings so the unders line with Sportsbook for his runs makes sense. Shorting at 20.5 at 10/111.91 would have won four times this season. It is also a winner in four of his seven innings against Perth.

Brisbane Heat v Sydney Sixers Big Bash Tips

Brisbane Heat v Sydney Sixers
Sunday 18 January, 08:15
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Another big contest at the death of the ladder season. The winner qualifies for the play-offs with the loser missing out on the top four, ending their campaign. Heat could be forgiven for feeling anxious given the Sixers' form.

Steve Smith smashed another century on Friday while Mitchell Starc roared in with the new ball. Given the hammering they dished out to Sydney Thunder, Sixers have their eye on usurping Hobart Hurricanes on net run rate to make it to the top two and thus an easier route to the final.

Smith has won seven of his last ten top bats in the Bash while he has reached fifty by the same number. He now has four tons and has gone under the runs quote only twice. Backing Smith across all markets is not the worst idea in the world.

He is 11/53.20 for top bat after winnin for us versus Thunder and 15/82.88 for a fifty. 

Heat have, of course, been boosted by Usman Khawaja and Marnus Labuschagne. But they are likely to need a big performance from Michael Neser, too, to match Sixers here. Neser has been a talisman in the past for the Heat. Labuschagne retains appeal at 8/19.00 for top bat given that we're convinced he's someone who could be moved up the order. 

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