Ed Hawkins previews the Big Bash clash from Adelaide Oval and finds two top-bat prices to take advantage of...
"Turner has looked in fantastic touch so far this season, getting hold of the Stars attack in impressive fashion"
Perth Scorchers v Adelaide Strikers
Monday 28 December, 23:30
TV: live on BT Sport
Roy and Livingstone in
Perth have had a ponderous start to their campaign, losing two and sharing the points with Melbourne Stars after a washout. A well-balanced squad would be forgiven for starting to panic.
A win here seems like a must. Fortunately, the cavalry has arrived - or rather, been let out of quarantine. England pair Jason Roy and Liam Livingstone are available. Perth are also hopeful that Ashton
Agar is fit after injury. If so, they look capable of fielding a very striogn XI, releasing Cameron Bancroft from his no-man's land position in the lower order.
Possible XI Roy, Inglis, Munro, Livingstone, M Marsh, A Turner, A Agar, Richardson, Tye, Behrendorff, Ahmed
Rashid Khan is a major doubt for the Strikers after he limped from the field in the victory over Brisbane Heat. He has a garde one hamstring tear and although he could play through that, it would seem an unnecessary risk.
Strikers welcome back Alex Carey and Harry Conway after border restrictions prevented them from travelling to Queensland. A depleted Strikers, therefore, were grateful for the points against Heat after the hosts almost pulled off one of the most amazing comebacks ever seen.
Chasing 150, Heat looked beat at 68 for eight. But Jimmy Peirson's robust hitting put them in command and they should have got home with 17 required off the last two.
Possible XI Weatherald, Salt, Renshaw, Carey, Wells, Short, Conway, Rashid, Briggs, Worrall, Siddle, W Agar
The Adelaide Oval is one for defenders. There's a 63% bias for the team batting first in the last five competitions. This is the first match played at the venue in this yea's campaign. The average score batting first is 161 and 66% of sides batting first bust the 160 mark. The highest score batting first is 217 and the biggest chase is 183. Going over 160 on innings runs doesn't seem a big risk. Sportsbook go even money that both teams score 160 or more. That has happened only four times in the last 14.
Strikers a trade
Before a ball was bowled we said that Perth would be title contenders. That claim looks a little wild so far. But there is plenty of faith in the match odds market with Scorchers 1.794/5.
That is not the sort of price we can agree to when they look a good side on paper only. It's time to start putting some performances together.
Strikers, therefore, rate an obvious trade with the toss bias in their favour. They are a limited side with the bat and face a battle to qualify but in the field they have good bowling experience. Expect them to flip the market with 160 on the board and then applying a squeeze.
Ashton Turner is giving us three implied points on win rate against Sportsbook's odds of 13/2 for top Perth bat. He has looked in fantastic touch so far this season, getting hold of the Stars attack in impressive fashion. Jono Wells, a similar player, is also underrated for Strikers. He is 6/1 but on win rate in the last two-and-a-bit years he comes in at 27%, an edge of 13 points. He did top two games ago, though.
With the ball, take on a hamstrung Rashid with death bowler Wes Agar. He has won two from four and returned a shared honours. He is hugely underrated at Sportsbook's 7/2.
Ed Hawkins P-L
Based only on available prices. Does not include back-to-lay in-running match advice or commission rate. Figures 2013-2016 on 1pt level stakes. New points system (0.5pt-5) introduced for 2017. Includes Hawk-Eye stats column p-l & COB Best Bets