Sri Lanka v Australia First Test Tips: Hosts can cause 'upset' with spin to the fore

Sri Lanka v Australia
Wednesday 29 January, 04:30
TV: live on Sky Sports

Sri Lanka v Australia First Test team news

Sri Lanka have some injury worries. Pathum Nissanka, the opener, has already been ruled out while captain  Dhanajaya de Silva (side strain) and Kamindu Mendis (split webbing) are expected to make it.

Oshada Fernando is likely to come in for Nissanka. He averages 33 in 19 Tests. Left-arm spin all-rounder Sonal Dinusha may have to wait for for a debut. He has a first-class average of 24 with the ball and 40 with the bat. 

The hosts will attack with two main spinners in Prabath Jayasuriya and Nishan Peiris. The fromer spins it away from the right hander, the latter spins it in. 

Possible India XI: Karunaratne, Oshada, Chandimal, Mathews, Kamindu, Kusal Mendis, Dhananjaya, Peiris, P Jayasuriya, Rathanayake, Asitha

Australia will be led by Steve Smith with Pat Cummins rested for this tour. That completes Smith's redemptive story arc for cheating, then. There is no Josh Hazlewood, either with Mitchell Starc considered attack leader.

It's not much of an attack. Scott Boland will have to bowl dry. Nathan Lyon's spin will be crucial and he could be assisted by one, possibly two more spinners such as all-rounder Cooper Connolly and Toddy Murphy.

It has been confirmed that Sam Konstas cannot be trusted to open the batting which is sommething of a fall from grace for the star boy. Travis Head gets the gig instead. That allows extra room for spin all-rounders such as Connolly in the middle order. Nathan McSweeney is another option in that regard. It's possible that Konstas could bat in the middle. 

Possible Australia XI: Khawaja, Head, Labuschagne, Smith, Webster, Carey, Connolly, Starc, Lyon, Murphy, Boland

Sri Lanka v  Australia First Test pitch report

There is no toss bias in Galle in the last five years (13 Tests) with seven matches won by the chaser. There have been no draws. In September Sri Lanka beat new Zealand by an innings after posting 602 for five declared. Spin dominated with 19 Kiwi wickets falling to spin. Pakistan won by four wickets in 2023 after replying to Sri lanka's 312 with 461. In the two first-innings 12 of 20 wickets went to spin. In the last two it was 13 from 16.

It is fair, then, to expect a wicket which is best for batting up front before deteriorating and offering the spinners significant assistance. The difference in average runs per wicket declines steadily by each innings in our study period from the first to the fourth is as following: 37.8, 35, 27.2 and 25.2. A classic Asian wicket in other words. And why not? Sri Lanka would be bonkers to prepare anything else.

For betting puposes it may be best to wait for an opportunity to short Aussies runs in their second-innings (match siituation dependant) at the 170s, 180s and 190s for cheap lays. Any par line in the 230s or 240s for Australia in the third is a solid sell. 

Sri Lanka v Australia First Test match prediction

Sri Lanka are 2.3811/8, Australia 2.0621/20 and the draw 9.6017/2. Given that there hasn't been a stalemate in the last five years at this venue that draw price may be considered not big enough but the weather is the interesting news here. The forecast will keep that price keen.

Indeed we would be surprised if it didn't shorten as more become aware of rain and thunderstorms forecast for each of the five days. The timing of the thunderstorms will be crucial. So far they could be a mix of early morning and late evening but there could be delays. A back-to-lay of the draw tucking away around five points is possible, particularly with a bunky first-innings score.

If the forecast was set fair we would be all over Sri Lanka here. At home, they should be favourites. They have lost one of their last eight home series. In 2022 they drew 1-1 with an Australia team which at least had their captain. The Aussies don't justify even-money status considering they have three wins in their last nine Tests in Asia. Understandable because pitches and conditions are alien.

We will have a slice of the Sri lanka home price but because of the weather, will look for the conmfort rug of them batting first and keeping that wear and tear on side.

India v England Third T20 player bets

It stands to reason that form in Australia is irrelevant for Tests like these. So filtering Australia's recent Tests in Asia makes sense for player win rate. It's no surprise to see Usman Khawaja dominate for Australia with the bat. This tour has come at the perfect time to save his Test career. The opener has six top-bat wins in nine in these conditions with five half-centuries. Sportsbook go 5/16.00 he tops scores while 6.205/1 is available on the Exchange. The prices are as big because he struggled badly against india at home. He is 7/42.75 for a 50 and taking that price means we don't have to worry about what others do, which is always a bonus. He is 5/61.84 for overs 29.5 in the first dig. 

Nathan Lyon has three wins in his last nine top bowler markets in first-innings in Asia so Sportsbook's 21/103.10 isn't too shabby. Murphy is a live runner, though at 10/34.33 and otubowled Lyon twice. 

For Sri Lanka, Kamindu Mendis, aka the runmachine, has three wins in four in Asia. Sportsbook go 4/15.00 about another. Prabath (four in nine) will be well-backed at 6/42.50 for top Sri lanka first-innings bowler. 

Now read more Cricket tips and previews here!